Research teams from the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, and Ritsumeikan University have announced the results of estimates based on climate change prediction data, "how many times in a lifetime grandchildren will experience extreme weather phenomena that grandparents do not encounter." ..
This study was conducted with the aim of making the current adult generation feel more about future climate change, and as a result, the grandparents will not experience it in their lifetime unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. It is said that it showed that grandchildren can experience such hot days and heavy rains many times (intergenerational inequity can occur).
具体的には、「1960年から2040年まで生きる祖父母のもとに、2020年に孫が生まれ、孫は2100年まで生きる」というケースにおいて、祖父母が一度も経験しないような暑い日および大雨（1960～2040年で最大の日最高気温および日降水量を超えるもの）を、孫が2020～2100年で何日経験するかを調べた結果、温室効果ガスの排出削減が進まないシナリオでは、熱帯の一部地域で祖父母が遭遇しないような暑い日を孫が生涯で1000回以上（日本では400回程度）、大雨を5回以上（日本では3回程度）それぞれ経験しうることがわかった。
It was also found that countries with lower GDP per capita and CO2 emissions per capita tend to experience more high temperatures and heavy rainfall under this scenario.In other words, countries that are less adaptable to climate impact (ability to take measures to mitigate the impact) and are considered to have less contribution and responsibility to climate change are exposed to high temperatures and heavy rains, resulting in unfairness between regions. There is a risk that sex will be strengthened.
On the other hand, in the scenario where the 2 ° C target of the Paris Agreement can be achieved, it is shown that the increase in hot days and heavy rains faced by grandchildren can be greatly suppressed, and the strengthening of inequity between countries can be mitigated. Was done.
This study provides simple, easy-to-understand indicators that current efforts to mitigate climate change for grandparents and parents contribute to improving intergenerational and interregional equity for children. ..
