Professor Hiroshi Yoshida of the Center for Aging Economics and Social Studies, Graduate School of Economics, Tohoku University and others estimated the "fixed value" of the total fertility rate by prefecture in 2015 prior to the announcement by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.As a result, unlike the “preliminary figures” released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare in May 2016, the birth rate was revised upward in 5 prefectures.
The "total fertility rate" is important when considering the issue of declining birthrate.In May 2016, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare announced the "preliminary figures" of the "total fertility rate by prefecture in 5" in the "2015 Vital Statistics Monthly Report (Approximate Number) Overview".Furthermore, in the future, based on the results of the "2015 Census" announced by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications in October 2016, the "fixed value" of the total fertility rate will be announced within the year.
The data on the female population, which is the "denominator" when calculating the "total fertility rate by prefecture" by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, is based on the "preliminary figures" of the female population including Japanese and foreigners in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications "Population Estimate". In the "fixed value", the female population of only Japanese people based on the results of the national census is used.Therefore, due to the influence of the foreign population included in the "breaking news value" and the influence of the estimation error of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications "population estimation", the numerical value may change significantly between the breaking news value and the final value depending on the prefecture.
Therefore, Professor Yoshida of Tohoku University and others estimated the final value of the total fertility rate using the calculation definition of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare before the announcement of the final value of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare.As a result, the birth rate was revised upward from the preliminary figures in 25 prefectures due to the influence of excluding the foreign population.Among them, Tokyo was revised upward from 1.17 to 1.25 (+0.08), Kyoto prefecture from 1.26 to 1.34 (+0.08), and Gifu and Aichi prefectures from 1.49 to 1.56 (+0.07).
On the other hand, due to the influence of the estimation error of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications "Population Estimate", it was revised downward in 17 prefectures such as Wakayama prefecture and Tottori prefecture.Furthermore, even in the ranking of each prefecture, Kagoshima prefecture, which was 8th in the preliminary figures, is ranked 3rd in the final value, and Gifu and Aichi prefectures, which are 27th, are ranked 17th. The result was.
