Of the permafrosts whose underground temperature is below zero throughout the year, most of the permafrosts in Daisetsuzan, Hokkaido are in danger of disappearing due to the effects of global warming. It was found in the future forecast of the National Institute for Environmental Studies.
According to Hokkaido University, the research group used the results of forecasting the temperature of Mt. Daisetsu with a fineness of 1 kilometer to explore what will happen to permafrost in the future.
As a result, in the scenario where greenhouse gas emissions continue as they are and the average global temperature rises by 2100 to 4 degrees Celsius in 5 compared to before the Industrial Revolution, all permafrost in Daisetsuzan disappears around 2070. It became clear to do.Even in the scenario where the global average temperature rise is only 2 degrees Celsius compared to before the Industrial Revolution by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the result is that permafrost will shrink to one tenth of the 2100s in 2000.
Daisetsuzan is located in central Hokkaido and is a huge mountainous area consisting of 2,000-meter-class volcanic groups such as Mt. Asahidake.Similar to Mt. Fuji and Tateyama in Honshu, the temperature environment is such that permafrost is maintained, but due to recent climate change, the environment in which permafrost can be maintained is conspicuously decreasing.
It has been pointed out that if permafrost melts as expected, it may cause thawing subsidence called thermokarst and destabilize mountainous areas.The research group believes that it is necessary to consider appropriate measures such as the protection of mountain natural resources in order to prepare for major changes in the future.
