Professor Yoshiyuki Shimoda of the Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University and Takaya Nishimoto (master's course), a graduate student, and others will use a detailed bottom-up simulation that is unprecedented in the world to capture the energy consumption of the household sector in Japan in 2050. I predicted.

 As a result, it was found that by 2050, existing technologies such as housing insulation and high-efficiency water heaters would have a significant reduction effect, and the energy consumption of the Japanese household sector could be almost halved.Furthermore, the energy consumption at this time has reached the level that developed countries should aim for, and the amount of power generated when a maximum of 5 kW of solar power is installed on the roofs of all detached houses can be almost covered. Clarified.That is, it suggested that carbon neutrality could be achieved in 2050.

 Since household energy consumption varies greatly depending on the characteristics of the household (number of people, owned equipment, weather conditions, housing specifications), the energy consumption of the household sector in Japan as a whole and the effect of introducing energy-saving technologies such as energy-saving housing and equipment have been introduced so far. Could not be accurately quantified.However, the "TREES" (Total Residential End-use Energy Simulation) model developed by this group over a dozen years faithfully reproduces the mechanism by which energy demand is generated at home, and accurately simulates these variations. I can do it.

 Since this study was able to quantitatively clarify the effects of various reduction measures, the TREES model allows the national and local governments to consider policies for the household sector toward carbon neutrality, and to increase or decrease greenhouse gas emissions each year. It is considered to be useful when performing factor analysis of the above with high accuracy.In the future, it is highly expected to be applied as an evaluation tool and progress management tool for global warming policy.

Paper information:[Applied Energy] Evaluating Decarbonization Scenarios and Energy Management Requirement for the Residential Sector in Japan through Bottom-up Simulations of Energy End-use Demand in 2050

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