A research team led by Professor Yukiko Hirabayashi of Shibaura Institute of Technology identified areas where flood damage will increase from the present due to climate change, etc., after implementing adaptation measures to reduce flood risk.The amount of increase in damage in that case was evaluated for the first time in the world.
So far, there have been studies investigating the effectiveness of adaptation measures to reduce the increase in flood damage, but no studies have quantitatively evaluated the "limits of adaptation" in which flood damage increases after the implementation of adaptation measures.Therefore, the research team evaluated the limit of adaptation by cost-benefit analysis * in local administrative units (prefectures and states) around the world.
In extreme warming scenarios, flood damage will increase by an average of US $ 983 billion annually, but flood damage will increase by US $ 68 billion annually as adaptation measures of $ 740 billion annually reduce damage by up to $ 243 billion annually. Was estimated.In addition, analysis in any scenario of different warming levels shows that flood damage will increase (more than 0.05% of GDP of local administrative units) after the implementation of adaptation measures in almost all regions of the globe. rice field.
There are many areas where adaptation measures can significantly reduce the increase in flood damage, but in some areas such as Africa and Latin America, adaptation measures are not implemented due to the high cost of implementation due to the economic conditions of the region, and the level of flood protection is low. It turned out.He indicated the need for international financial support for adaptation measures to mitigate damage in developing countries.
In some areas such as China, India, Asia, Africa and Latin America, flood damage will increase significantly even after adaptation (0.05% or more).Because the flood damage that occurs during the construction of flood protection equipment is large, it is necessary to take soft measures such as advance warning and evacuation in addition to early decision of adaptation measures and shortening of implementation time.
The research team points out that early decision-making and international funding are important factors in implementing effective adaptation measures on a global scale.
* Evaluation based on damage mitigation amount (benefit) by adaptation measures and adaptation cost implementation cost
Paper information:[Nature Climate Change] Residual flood damage under intensive adaptation
