Climate change: Arctic rainfall predicted to increase faster than expected

 
Recent modeling studies have revealed that Arctic rainfall will increase at a faster pace than previously thought.A paper reporting this finding will be published in Nature Communications.In this study, total Arctic rainfall can exceed Arctic rainfall decades earlier than previously thought, with various impacts on climate, ecosystems, and socio-economics. Was suggested.

The Arctic is known to warm at a faster pace than most other parts of the world, and major environmental changes are taking place within this region.Studies suggest that Arctic rainfall will exceed snowfall at some point in the 21st century, but it is not clear when this transition will occur.

Michelle McCrystall and colleagues now use the latest predictions from the Phase 6 Combined Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP6) to assess changes in the Arctic water cycle by 2100.As a result, it was predicted that precipitation (rainfall, snowfall, etc.) would increase in all seasons.In the Arctic, depending on the season and region, it was predicted that rainfall would become the main form of precipitation 10 to 20 years earlier than previously suggested by previous models.This is related to the intensification of global warming and the acceleration of sea ice loss.For example, previous models predicted that rainfall would transition to the predominant form of precipitation in the central Arctic Ocean in 2090, while the latest model predicts this transition to 2060/2070. McCrystall et al. The idea that the temperature threshold at which this transition occurs may be lower than previously predicted, and that in some areas, such as Greenland, the transition can occur even at 1.5 ° C. Shows.

McCrystall et al. Conducted climate change because when rainfall becomes the predominant form of precipitation in the Arctic, it affects ice sheet melting, rivers, and wildlife populations, and has important social, ecosystem, cultural, and economic implications. He argues that stricter mitigation policies are needed.

doi: 10.1038 / s41467-021-27031-y
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* This article is reprinted from "Nature Japan Featured Highlights".
Reprinted from: "Climate change: Arctic rainfall forecast to increase more rapidly than previously expected'
 

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