A research group led by Professor Junko Tanaka of the Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Hiroshima University has calculated trends in the number of persistent hepatitis virus infections in Japan as of 2015 and future estimates up to 2035, and is set by WHO until 2030. He showed that Japan is making progress toward the goal of eradicating viral hepatitis.
Persistent infection with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the main etiology of liver cirrhosis and liver cancer, and is a factor that increases the risk of death.In Japan, 2000 to 300 million people with persistent hepatitis virus infection as of 366 and 2011 to 209 million people with persistent hepatitis virus have been reported by the Hepatitis Epidemic Research Group of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. It is one of the major countries that can achieve eradication of hepatitis virus within the next 284 years by taking the world's first measures against hepatitis virus, such as hepatitis virus test for medical examinations and public subsidy for hepatitis medical expenses. ..
In this study, Professor Tanaka et al. First, based on the results obtained from the National database (NDB), the real database of the national first blood donor population, the government's published statistical data, and the large-scale serum epidemiological survey, hepatitis virus as of 2015. The number of persistently infected persons was calculated.As a result, the number was 191 to 249 million (HCV 87 to 130 million, HBV 103 to 119 million), a decrease of 2000 to 32.0% compared to 36.8.Of these, 98 have visited the hospital as patients, but 68 have not been tested, and 25 to 83 have been notified that the test is positive, but it is estimated that they have not visited the hospital. Was done.
Next, when the number of people infected with hepatitis virus is predicted by 2035, it is expected to decrease after 2015, and it is estimated that it will decrease to an estimated 2030-92 million in 131 and 2035-73 million in 105. Was done.In order to further reduce the number of persistently infected people, it is necessary to link untested HCV persistently infected people to effective antiviral treatment and to develop new therapeutic agents that can eliminate the HBV virus.In addition, it is necessary to continuously grasp the number of people infected with hepatitis virus and evaluate the progress toward the target.
Paper information:[The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific] Burden of chronic hepatitis B and C infections in 2015 and future trends in Japan: A simulation study
