International research teams such as the National Institute for Environmental Studies, the University of Tokyo, and the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology have set a time when droughts that exceed the maximum ever occur for many years, that is, when the "abnormalities" so far have become normal. Estimated for the first time in.
Knowledge of future changes in drought due to the effects of global warming is important for studying long-term countermeasures against global warming.Especially in the fields of water resources, agriculture and energy, it is necessary to understand when conventional statistics and experience are no longer applicable.There are many studies that estimate the time when the temperature and precipitation will exceed the past observations, but the drought of water on the surface such as river water has been unexperienced for many years. No studies have identified when it will begin to occur.
The research group analyzed the global future prediction data of river flow (59 regions worldwide) using a numerical model to investigate the frequency of drought.As a result, in certain areas, such as the Mediterranean coast and southern South America, by the first half or mid-century of this century, the largest droughts of all time have been surpassed for at least five years in a row, and "previous anomalies" are not uncommon. It turned out to be likely.
In addition, even with strong greenhouse gas emission reductions, it is likely that there will be several regions in the coming decades where such record breaks will become the norm (southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, North Africa, etc.).On the other hand, it was also shown that if a carbon-free society is realized by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the time to reach a continuous record-breaking time will be delayed or the duration will be shortened.
Based on these results, it is important to promote mitigation measures for the realization of a carbon-free society, and it is necessary to promote adaptation measures efficiently and promptly in the next few decades in specific regions.
Paper information:[Nature Communications] The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change
