A research group at the University of Tsukuba has also succeeded in quantitatively clarifying the effects of wide-area evacuation from the perspective of shortening travel time in floods and floods, and concretely showing the scope of efficient cooperation between local governments.

 With recent climate change, the frequency of heavy rainfall, which poses a risk of heavy rainfall disasters, is increasing.One of the important measures to reduce the risk of flood damage is the formulation of a safe and efficient evacuation plan.

 On the other hand, since evacuation plans are formulated on a local government basis, wide-area evacuation beyond the boundaries of local governments has not been fully considered.In this study, in order to formulate an efficient evacuation plan including wide area evacuation, we tried to quantify the effect of wide area evacuation and analyze the range of cooperation in the area where the effect of wide area evacuation is large.

 First, regarding the effects of wide-area evacuation, the percentage of people whose evacuation distance is shorter in wide-area evacuation than in local government evacuation during large-scale floods (wide-area evacuation rate) and the reduction rate of evacuation time for local governments nationwide. It was quantified from the viewpoint of.As a result, it was found that the number of people whose evacuation distance is shortened by wide area evacuation accounts for 24% of the evacuation target population, and that wide area evacuation has the effect of shortening the evacuation time.It was found that wide-area evacuation can reduce the total evacuation time by 14% and depending on the evacuation distance by 30%.However, wide-area evacuation often requires crossing rivers, and evacuation time may increase if available evacuation routes are limited.

 In addition, it is possible to grasp the local governments that have a large effect of wide-area evacuation from the calculation of the wide-area evacuation rate and the evacuation time shortening rate, and the community detection method clarifies the range of cooperation (community) between multiple local governments where wide-area evacuation is effective. I also succeeded in making it.This will make it possible to specifically propose the scope of cooperation between local governments and local governments that have a high need for wide-area evacuation, and is expected to contribute to the formulation of wide-area evacuation plans.In addition, for safe and efficient wide-area evacuation, it is important to inform the residents of evacuation routes and evacuation facility information in advance.

Paper information:[International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction] Cross-border evacuation and intermunicipal cooperation during large-scale flood disasters

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