The National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, the University of Tsukuba, and the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency have jointly devised a "large removal detection index" that detects situations where the solar radiation amount prediction is significantly different.This index is expected to contribute to the stable supply of electric power and efficient operation in the era of mass introduction of photovoltaic power generation.
Since the amount of power generated by solar power generation depends on the weather, the amount of power generated is predicted using the solar radiation amount prediction, and the excess or deficiency is adjusted and filled with hydropower or thermal generators.However, if the solar radiation amount prediction is wrong, there will be a surplus or shortage in this adjustment power supply, so it is an urgent issue to improve the accuracy of the solar radiation amount prediction and to take measures against a situation where the solar radiation amount is greatly wrong.Therefore, this time, we worked on the development of an index that can predict the situation where the solar radiation amount prediction of the Japan Meteorological Agency deviates greatly.
Since there is a bias in forecasting with a single forecasting agency, global ensemble forecasting (the entire globe is gradually predicted at the same time) based on the solar radiation forecast information provided by the four weather forecasting agencies of Japan, Europe, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Multiple predictions were made under different conditions), and the weighted average of the standard deviations was used as the "large deviation detection index".According to the evaluation conducted by the research group, it was found that this index can accurately detect the situation where the prediction is greatly different, with 4% hitting the big hit of 5% per year and 90% especially in winter.
In the future, we will simulate the power supply and demand operation using the large deviation detection index, and how much the supply and demand balance can be improved if the large deviation can be predicted in advance, and the power supply for adjustment when the prediction is highly reliable. We will consider the possibility of economical operation by saving money and aim to put the index into practical use.If it is put into practical use, it can be expected to contribute to stable power operation toward the accelerating mass introduction of photovoltaic power generation systems.
Paper information:[Solar Energy] A diagnostic for advance detection of forecast busts of regional surface solar radiation using multi-center grand ensemble forecasts
