Based on the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology's Basic School Survey, Recruit Research Institute estimated the 2030-year-old population in 18, and found that it would be a significant decrease of 2018 people nationwide compared to 13.2. It is expected that the number of 2020 people will decrease at a stretch in the four years from 24 to 4, and it is unlikely that a serious impact on university management will be avoided.

 According to Recruit Institute of Advanced Studies, the 2018-year-old population in 18 is 118 million nationwide, but it is expected that the decline will continue almost every year in the future. It is estimated that in 2030, the number will decrease to 2018 million, which is 13.2 less than in 104.8.In particular, it is expected that the sharp decline will continue in the four years from 2020.

 2018年の18歳人口を100として2030年の地区別人口を見ると、出生率が高い九州・沖縄地区は94.6、首都圏がある南関東地区は94.4にとどまっているが、東北地区78.2、甲信越地区81.0、北関東地区83.3、北陸地区84.0、四国地区85.0、北海道地区85.5、近畿地区85.9、東海地区89.5、中国地区90.0と、その他は深刻な減少が見られることが分かった。

 By prefecture, the 20 prefectures of Aomori, Iwate, Akita, Yamagata, Fukushima, Yamanashi, Toyama, Nara, Wakayama, and Kochi are expected to decrease by 10% or more. The 15-20% decrease extends to eight prefectures: Ibaraki, Gunma, Niigata, Nagano, Gifu, Yamaguchi, Tokushima, and Nagasaki. Only three prefectures, Tokyo, Fukuoka, Kagoshima, and Okinawa, have decreased by less than 8%.

 The education industry, such as universities and preparatory schools, is affected by this, and in the case of universities, it is thought that the decrease in the number of examinees and the acceleration of the number of students will have a serious impact on management.

reference:[Recruit Advancement Research Institute] Trends in 18-year-old population transition, university / junior college / vocational school enrollment rate, and local retention rate 2018

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