Special Researcher Weg Rea of ​​the National Institute for Environmental Studies and Associate Professor Tomomichi Kato of the Hokkaido University Graduate School of Agriculture have successfully developed a simulation model that predicts the production of acorns produced by Fagaceae trees. It is thought that this method could be applied to predicting the population of animals that depend on acorns, such as bears.

 According to Hokkaido University, the research group added calculations of the amount of carbohydrate accumulation necessary for acorns to a forest carbon cycle model to reproduce the carbon cycle in solid trees, and created a model that predicts the production of acorns that will be abundant every few years. developed.

 When we applied this to Quercus oaks at the Hokkaido University Northern Biosphere Field Science Center in Hokuryu Town, Hokkaido, and compared them with acorn production measured over a period of about 40 years, we were able to reproduce changes in production over time.

 Wild animals such as bears that depend on acorns live in remote forests when the harvest is plentiful, but when the harvest is poor they come out near human settlements in search of food, causing damage to humans and crops. Accurately predicting the amount of acorns produced will lead to predicting the population of bears and other animals, which will be a step toward reducing damage.

 The research group will now conduct simulations of beech, Quercus oak, and Japanese chinquapin forests across Japan, and will input future climate scenarios into data to make future predictions.

Paper information:【Ecological Modelling】Modified SEIB-DGVM enables simulation of masting in a temperate forest

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