A project team including the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) and Hokkaido University has conducted a number of high-resolution warming simulations for climate conditions in which the world's average surface temperature has risen by 2 ° C, and in the near future climate. Revealed that heavy rainfall is likely to increase and that continuous non-precipitation days will increase.
So far, it has been reported that precipitation increases with the progress of global warming and the precipitation phenomenon becomes more extreme.From the perspective of disaster prevention and agriculture, it is possible to predict how much infrequent extreme meteorological phenomena that occur only once every few decades will change in the future, and what kind of changes will occur in the near future. Highly accurate predictions are essential.
Therefore, this time, using JAMSTEC's supercomputer "Earth Simulator", we conducted a large number of high-resolution global warming simulations targeting the climatic conditions in which the world average surface temperature has risen by 2 ° C since industrialization.It was found that the intensity of extreme precipitation (maximum daily precipitation per year) is likely to increase in the near future around 2030-2050 without additional mitigation efforts.In addition, the period of continuous non-precipitation (number of consecutive non-precipitation days) also increased.
This result can be said to be a new step toward a highly reliable future forecast.It is expected that this result will be utilized not only for precipitation but also for evaluation of future changes of various extreme phenomena and examination of adaptation measures.
