A research group led by Sharon Hanley, a specially appointed lecturer at Hokkaido University, and Karen Kanfil, a professor at the Cancer Council NewSouthWales in Australia, said that the HPV vaccine for cervical cancer prevention in Japan was "actively recommended." Analyze the impact of "discontinuation".It is estimated that 80% of the excess deaths from cervical cancer can be saved by implementing various policies such as resuming active encouragement, but it will be difficult to eradicate it unless the screening rate increases.
In Japan, the HPV (human papillomavirus) vaccine was routinely vaccinated based on the Vaccination Law in April 2013, but after vaccination, symptoms such as pain and convulsions were reported one after another, and vaccination was actively recommended two months later. It was canceled.After that, many research results showed that the vaccine and symptoms were unrelated, but the discontinuation is still ongoing, and the inoculation rate, which was about 4% before the discontinuation, has decreased to less than 2%.Therefore, a study was conducted with the aim of quantifying the effects of discontinuing the active recommendation of the HPV vaccine.
その結果、日本でのHPVワクチンの積極的勧奨の中止により1994年から2007年の間に生まれた女性だけでも、一生涯のうち24,600～27,300人が子宮頸がんに超過罹患し、5,000～5,700人が死亡すると予測された。また、今後50年間で、合わせて55,800～63,700人が罹患し、9,300～10,800人が死亡、さらに現在12歳の女性だけでも、一生涯のうち3,400人～3,800人が子宮頸がんとなり700人～800人が死亡すると推定した。
On the other hand, if active encouragement is immediately resumed and the approval of the 9-valent vaccine can restore the vaccination rate for women aged 12 to 20 to 2020-50% by the end of 70, excess cervical cancer. Estimated to save 80% of deaths.However, unless not only the vaccination rate but also the screening rate rises, it is estimated that cervical cancer eradication will be difficult during this century, and it is expected that active recommendation will be resumed.
Paper information:[Lancet Public Health] Impact of HPV vaccine hesitancy on cervical cancer in Japan: a modeling study
