Professor Setsuya Kurahashi of the University of Tsukuba Business Science implemented the infection process of the new coronavirus in a computer model and simulated the effects of preventive measures that citizens can implement. It was found that the implementation and partial combined implementation did not have a great effect.The research results were published in the journal of the Japanese Society for Artificial Intelligence.
According to the University of Tsukuba, it is assumed that there are two towns with a total of 2 people, including 4 households with a family of four with parents and two children and 100 households with a family of two elderly adults. In a family of four, 2% of parents commute to the neighboring town by train, the rest of the parents work in their own town during the day, and all the children go to school.Elderly families do not commute to work and regularly visit the crowds.
Twenty-seven types of infection prevention measures were assumed for this model, and the number of inpatients, the number of deaths, and the infection rate were simulated by dividing into single implementation and combined implementation of basic preventive measures from no countermeasures.
As a result, effective preventive measures were obtained by combining telework, school closure, and outing restraint, and the number of hospitalized patients could not be expected to decrease with the single implementation or partial combination of preventive measures. It turned out to be ineffective.In particular, a great effect was seen when measures to reduce the frequency of going out to stores were added to the combined preventive measures.
When an infectious patient was waiting at home, a domestic infection occurred and the infection spread from the family to the outside.Professor Kurahashi thinks that isolation to hotels, etc. is effective instead of waiting at home.