In collaboration with Juntendo University and Nagoya Institute of Technology, a research group led by Professor Hiroshi Kuroda and Professor Tetsuya Mizutani of Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology applied a protein aggregation analysis model to a model for analyzing human migration and virus infection. ..It is possible to predict an increase in the number of infected people depending on the timing and range of movement restrictions.
The new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is said to be transmitted through close human contact, and movement is restricted (lockdown).However, in order to maintain social infrastructure, it is necessary to resume economic and social activities with minimal interpersonal contact, so relaxation of movement restrictions is a problem in every country.
The research group applied a lattice model (a type of coarse-grained model) for protein aggregation analysis to analysis of human migration and viral infection.The particles were converted from "protein" to "human", and the "intramolecular interaction between proteins" that affects the state of the particles was converted to "infection probability".Virus infection probability, virus detection sensitivity, and human migration range were used as parameters.
As a result of the simulation, the total number of infections was the smallest with complete movement restrictions.On the other hand, regarding the movement of individuals, a critical value was recognized in which the infection risk rapidly reached a certain value depending on the population density from zero infection probability.In addition, it was confirmed that the effect is small only by restricting movement, and it is necessary to combine quarantine so that the detection rate of affected patients exceeds 40%.
Furthermore, if presymptomatic patients can be detected and isolated with a probability of about 20%, it is predicted that the number of infected people will be less than 10/1 of that without countermeasures.Finally, if the probability of virus infection can be kept below 40% by wearing social distances and masks, even gradual movement restrictions can be expected to be effective.
The model used this time makes it possible to provide useful qualitative and relative information for evaluating migration restriction and infection spread.
Paper information:[MedRxiv] Stochastic modeling of the effects of human-mobility restriction and viral infection characteristics on the spread of COVID-19
