[2] External pressure to promote university selection

　　“Further decline in the 18-year-old population”

Now, let's think about the external pressure on the university that will occur in the future.First, the first external pressure of selection is the further decline in the 2018-year-old population, which is described as a 18 issue.As seen in Chart 1, changes in the 18-year-old population can be predicted from the number of births to 18 years later.

2015年の120万人が、10年後の2025年には109万人(11万人減)、16年後の2031年には99万人(21万人減)まで減少する予測だ。もし、今と変わらず18歳人口の約半数が大学に進学すると仮定し、入学定員規模別の私立大学数から、以下の規模感のインパクトが予測される。(図表5)

Impact calculation table when the 18-year-old population declines (Chart 5)

2025年までに11万人(大学進学者数5.5万人)18歳人口が減少すると、入学定員400人以下の大学が全国に287校あり、そのほとんどの入学定員分が消滅するというインパクトがある。2031年には、21万人(大学進学者10.5万人)減少するので、入学定員600人未満の大学378校の入学定員数に匹敵する大学進学者が消滅する計算となる。

Of course, in reality, not only small universities will be affected, but there is no doubt that they will be greatly affected.

It is generally accepted that it will take 20 years for the university reform to be started and the results to be realized and to be evaluated by society.It will take 10 years even if the reform speed is accelerated.In addition, the faculty and staff who joined this year will work at the university for 40 years after retirement. It is necessary to consider the future forecast of the long-term range instead of the medium-term of 6 to 7 years.

Here, I would like to predict the transition of the 18-year-old population in the longer-term range.Let's take a look at the transition of the 24-year-old population from the median birth (median death) estimate to 1 of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research "Future Estimated Population of Japan (January 2100 Estimate)".

Long-term estimation of the 18-year-old population (Chart 6)

出生を中位と仮定した推計でも、20年後の2035年には、88.9万人(2015年比較で31.1万人減、大学進学率50%で私立大学450校分の入学定員分)、30年後の2045年には、75.6万人(44.4万人減、私立大学500校分の入学定員分)、40年後の2055年には、68.6万人(51.4万人減)まで減少し、2100年には、34.8万人まで減少の一途をたどる。

Even if the measures against the declining birthrate are successful and the birth rate starts to rise, the effect will be reflected in university enrollment 18 years later.In any case, the reality is that the university market will inevitably be subject to further contraction.

While such predictions hold, various directions can be considered for maintaining and expanding the university market.

<Maximize share>

• Win the domestic Red Ocean

<Expansion of recruitment area>

• Acquire inbound (international students) from overseas to Japan
• Expand overseas and develop overseas human resources

<Expansion of age axis>

• Expand the market for working adults other than 18 years old

<Overcoming space-time>

• Develop a market for overseas and working people through distance learning

And so on.

However, the author, who is in the field of reform, feels that there is no sense of crisis in the university facing the 2018 problem.Looking back, it is known that the 1992-year-old population will decrease after 18, but Japanese universities have not made any substantial reforms.As at that time.

The medium-term plan formulated by each university has a time axis of 6 years and 7 years.In addition, except for owner-affiliated universities, the term of office of university management is short, and the current situation is that the perspective of promoting reforms in the long-term range is not widespread.Universities that have been enthusiastic about short-term recruitment and have been reforming mainly by reforming entrance examinations for small hands and reorganizing faculties and departments.Educational reforms to maximize essential outcomes have been slow to progress. Today, 2018 and beyond are just around the corner. 18 I want you to continue to carry out essential educational reforms, not just recruitment reforms that produce results in a short period of time, because the population is declining.