Many media have already reported on the results of the 2021 entrance examination.There are some points such as an increase in the average score of the common test for university admission, the steady popularity of difficult national universities, and a significant decrease in the number of private university applicants, but this time, private university Daiji will be held from the latter half of February to March. Think about the entrance exam.Due to the strict restrictions on the overcapacity rate, each private university has positioned the second-term entrance examination as a function for adjusting the number of enrolled students in addition to passing additional / supplementary vacancy.However, with the declining population of examinees, there are signs of change in their role.

 

The number of applicants for private university entrance exams has decreased significantly, and some universities have halved the number of applicants.

 About the entrance examination results this spring, Kawaijuku's entrance examination information site Kei-net (https://www.keinet.ne.jp/) But it is explained in detail.Although there is a decrease in the number of applicants for some universities that have canceled the secondary examination due to infectious disease control, such as the strong popularity of national and public universities, the popularity of qualification faculties, and the popularity of difficult national universities, it is national and public. On the surface, the impact of the reform of high school connection and the decrease in the number of examinees seems to be small for universities.On the other hand, at private universities, the ratio has decreased since last year due to a significant decrease in the number of applicants and an increase in the number of successful applicants.It can be said that the decrease in the number of examinees and the decrease in the number of concurrent schools per person are directly affecting.

 Yoyogi Seminar Entrance Examination Information Site (https://www.yozemi.ac.jp/nyushi/), There are several private universities where the number of applicants is decreasing on the scale of XNUMX to XNUMX.If the number of applicants decreases so far, there are few measures that can be taken.

 This decrease in the number of applicants is a big damage to the university, but the decrease rate is more damage than the decrease number.At some universities, the number of applicants has halved compared to last year.The fact that the number of applicants for general selection is halved from last year has a huge impact on campus compared to the general public.In many cases, a negative spiral can be seen, such as when a project or conference body for countermeasures is set up, and the section in charge of entrance examinations and public relations, which is the secretariat, does not have time to devise countermeasures.

【reference】Yoyogi Seminar Decrease in the number of applicants 20 universities
https://www.yozemi.ac.jp/nyushi/shiritsu/data/gensho20_2021.pdf


 

The rate of decrease in private university second-term entrance exams far exceeds that of first-term entrance exams

 Looking at Kawaijuku's entrance examination information site Kei-net, the number of applicants for private university entrance examinations has decreased by more than 50 compared to the previous year.Although it is a total number, it is a very impactful decrease.Of course, the number of main first-term entrance exams at each university has decreased significantly, but looking at the rate of decrease, the first-term entrance exams have decreased by 87% from the previous year, while the second-term entrance exams have decreased by 72%.This is a decrease of more than 10 from two years ago, when the number of applicants for the second term entrance examination was the highest in the last few years.The magnification is also declining, and it is expected that it will be even lower in the entrance examination next year.

 Currently, there are strict restrictions on the overcapacity rate of private universities.Therefore, each university has positioned the second-term entrance examination as a function for adjusting the number of enrolled students in addition to passing additional / supplementary vacancy.The main adjustment method was to reduce the number of successful applicants for the first-term entrance examination and instead give additional passes many times.From the point of view of the examinees, it is a problem, but from the point of view of the university, there is no other way.In addition, the number of applicants for the second-term entrance examination has also increased due to the increase in magnification and difficulty due to the decrease in the number of successful applicants for the first-term entrance examination.

 However, the situation changed at once due to the decrease in the actual number of university applicants due to the declining population.The decrease (narrowing down) in the number of successful applicants in the first-term entrance examination has settled down, and the number of successful applicants has increased by more than XNUMX since last year.When this happens, there are not many students left to take the second term entrance examination.In the future, the second-term entrance examination will be an opportunity for students to re-challenge the leading private universities that are conducting the second-term entrance examination after obtaining a passing university in the first-term entrance examination.With the exception of some of these leading private universities, it is likely that it will be difficult for many universities to obtain enrollment in the second term entrance examination.

【reference】Kawaijuku Educational University Looking Back on the 2021 Entrance Examination General Overview of Private Universities https://www.keinet.ne.jp/exam/past/review/private.html

 

Future recruitment of national and public universities will shift to comprehensive selection

 What is expected to have a further impact is the trend of comprehensive selection and school recommendation type selection at national and public universities.According to the summary of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, the recruitment of national and public universities in the 2021 entrance examination is gradually shifting to comprehensive selection.

 募集人員の推移を見ると2019年→2020年は356名増加(募集人員合計5,559名)、2020年→2021年は1,598名増加(募集人員合計7,157名)となっています。国公立大学全体の13万人の入学定員から見ればまだ影響は小さいかも知れませんが、学校推薦型選抜と合計すると27,000名を超える募集人員規模にまでなってきています。

 And it can be expected that it will continue to increase in the future.If these students pass, they will hardly take the general selection of private universities.In other words, from the perspective of private universities, not only is the actual number of university applicants decreasing due to the declining population, but also the actual number of general selection applicants is decreasing due to the entrance examination measures of national and public universities.

 In the 2022 entrance examination, Hokkaido University will expand the frontier entrance examination for comprehensive selection.Kanazawa University has also expanded the special entrance examinations, and Kyushu University has already seen some movements, such as the fact that there are new faculties that carry out school-recommended selection.For the examinees, the examination environment is becoming more and more rewarding.

【reference】Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Admissions Selection for National and Public Universities Reiwa 3rd Year Enrollment Selection
https://www.mext.go.jp/a_menu/koutou/senbatsu/1412102_00003.htm

 

Satoru Kobe (educational journalist)

Education Journalist/University Entrance Examination Writer/Researcher
After joining Kawaijuku Educational School in 1985, he has been engaged in collecting and disseminating university entrance examination information for over XNUMX years, and is also in charge of editing the monthly magazine "Guideline".
After retiring from Kawaijuku in 2007, he has been engaged in entrance examination work such as pass / fail judgment and entrance examination system design at a university in Tokyo, and is also in charge of student recruitment and public relations work.
After retiring from university in 2015, he worked as a writer and editor for Asahi Shimbun Publishing's "University Ranking" and Kawaijuku's "Guideline", and also contributed to Nihon Keizai Shimbun and Mainichi Newspapers.After that, he worked for a national research and development agency, and since 2016 has been consulting to support various issues at universities. KEI Advanced (Kawaijuku Group) conducts simulations and market trend surveys using entrance examination data, as well as formulating future concepts and medium-term plans, establishing new faculties, and supporting the design of entrance examination systems.
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