The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology publishes various aggregated data on universities, including the School Basic Survey.Among them, there is "Situation of Entrants Selection", which summarizes the selection of applicants for national, public and private universities.In general, the results of entrance examinations are published only for applicants, examinees, and successful applicants, but the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology also includes the number of enrollees.Therefore, it is possible to calculate the number of enrolled students ÷ number of successful applicants = admission procedure rate (yield rate).According to this, the yield rate of private universities is declining year by year, and according to the latest published data, the 2021 entrance examination results (published in February 2022), the yield rate of general selection has fallen below 2%.

Yield rate of "school recommendation type selection" is less than 8% at private universities

　The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology announces the status of the selection process for new students. ' has been published.However, the data for individual universities is only the sum total of all entrance examination methods for national and public universities, so it is not possible to check the status of individual private universities.However, since the overall tally is published for each entrance examination category by institution (national, public, private), the number of enrollees ÷ number of successful applicants = enrollment rate (yield rate) is calculated for each institution and entrance examination category. I can do it.

　The entrance examination categories are "general selection", "school recommendation type selection", "comprehensive type selection", "specialized/comprehensive course graduate selection", "returnee student selection", "repatriated students from China", and "working adult". It is divided into "selection".Of these, the most popular entrance exam results with a large number of applicants are the “general selection,” the “school recommendation type selection,” and the “comprehensive type selection.”

　Regarding "school recommendation type selection", national and public universities are almost 100%.There are two types of school-recommendation-based selection: the designated school system and the open recruitment system.However, some of the public universities have a school-recommendation-type selection system that designates high schools instead of regional designations.By the way, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Yokohama City University, etc. are representatives of public universities with a large number of recruits under the designated school system.

　On the other hand, most private universities have both a designated school system and an open recruitment system.In the case of the designated school system, if you pass (almost pass), it is a condition to enter.Therefore, the yield rate should be close to 100%, but the graph shows a downward trend over the last 20 years.

　As for the 2021 entrance examination, the yield rate is 76.7%, so even if 20% or more pass, they are not enrolled.This is thought to be due to the results of the open application system, which allows applicants to apply concurrently and does not require admission even if they are successful.However, it seems that the number of applicants is larger in the designated school system, so even if they pass the school recommendation type selection of the open recruitment system, most of them will not be admitted and will pass out to other universities. You can also see

Yield rate of private university “comprehensive selection” will plummet in 2021

　According to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology's XNUMX university admissions selection implementation guidelines, the "comprehensive selection" is "by combining detailed document screening and careful interviews that take time, etc., the applicant's ability and aptitude An entrance examination method that comprehensively evaluates and judges motivation for learning, sense of purpose, etc.Of course, the degree of aspiring students is high, and it is a premise that if they pass, they will be admitted.

　As a result, national and public universities have remained close to 100%, and even private universities have had a higher yield rate than the "school recommendation type selection", but from around 2020 a downward trend can be seen. So, in the 2021 entrance exam, it dropped by -10% from the previous year.

　The 2021 entrance examination is the first entrance examination for high school and university connection reforms, and the first entrance examination held during the corona crisis.It is undeniable that entrance examination reforms and infectious diseases have had an impact, but it seems that the main cause is on the university side rather than changes due to changes in student trends. From the 2020 entrance examination to the 2021 entrance examination, the number of successful applicants for the private university “comprehensive selection” has increased 1.3 times.About 6 people → About 5000 people, an increase of more than 8 people.Of course, the number of applicants has also increased by 6000 times, but it seems that there were many applicants who applied for the "comprehensive selection", which is an open recruitment system, instead of the "school recommendation type selection" that has a designated school system. .

　Originally, the “comprehensive selection” required effort to prepare the documents to be submitted at the time of application, but at the time, consideration was required on the part of the university regarding temporary closure of high schools and cancellation of events inside and outside the school. There was also.In addition, non-traditional selection methods such as online interviews were also used, so it is possible that this may have had an impact.

　From the perspective of the university, it was a time when the implementation of the general selection itself was in jeopardy due to the coronavirus pandemic, so as a private university, we wanted to secure as many students as possible for the entrance examinations within the year, so we announced a fairly large number of successful applicants. I think I did.Combined with the decrease in the number of people taking the exam and the decrease in the actual number of university applicants, the number of successful applicants may have become too large.This is thought to have led to an unprecedentedly large drop in yield rate.

Private university "general selection" The number of successful applicants increases due to the decrease in the yield rate

　The “general selection”, which allows all applicants to apply at the same time, is based on the premise that the yield rate is low in the first place, although there are differences depending on the individual university and entrance examination method.In the method of using the common university entrance test, which has many applicants who apply to both national and public universities, the yield rate is 10% or less, and in some cases it is 0% depending on the university and method.Still, looking at the graph, around 2000, the overall yield rate was close to 40%.That's 2021% and 18.7% in the 20 entrance exam.That's a pretty tough number.

　For example, let's say you have a department with an enrollment capacity of 100 students.If the yield rate is 40%, the number of successful applicants is 100 ÷ 0.4 = 250, but if the yield rate drops to 20%, 100 ÷ 0.2 = 500, double the number of successful applicants. I have to.If the number of applicants is 2, the effective rate of 1000 divided by 1000 = 250 will drop to 4.0 divided by 1000 = 500.A decrease in the actual magnification will lead to a decrease in the difficulty of the entrance examination, which will affect popularity and aspirations in the following years.

　If the number of successful applicants to private universities increases in this way, it will lead to a further decrease in the difficulty of entrance examinations due to the synergistic effect of the decrease in the number of applicants for examinations and the decrease in the actual number of applicants.The students are very happy, but it's really hard when you're in charge of the entrance exam process at the university, because there's a lot of pressure from the administration.It has been reported that the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology will implement revisions to the notification that stipulates the approval criteria for the establishment of new faculties from October 10 of this year.This is a revision proposal that relaxes the regulation of the excess enrollment rate from a single year to a multi-year regulation (management by admission capacity).

　Due to the current regulations, private universities with large enrollment capacities are cautious about announcing the number of successful applicants, and some universities are slightly below the enrollment capacities.If these universities increase the number of successful applicants by 5%, the impact will not be small.For example, the total admission capacity of MARCH in the "List of Universities in 3" is 2021, of which 2% is 9,740 small local universities, and 5-1,487 medium-sized universities in the metropolitan area.For these reasons, the decline in the yield rate is expected to continue for some time.