The successful applicants for the first semester schedule of the University of Tokyo and Kyoto University have been announced, and the 2023 entrance examination is nearing its end.From now on, we will continue to announce the mid- and late-term schedules of national and public universities, as well as the announcement of additional successful applicants from major private universities.For prospective students, there are still many opportunities left, but on the contrary, universities are likely to be stepping on thin ice and keeping an eye on the status of admission procedures.At such a timing, it may still be early, but the time has come to think about the next entrance examination (2024 entrance examination).

 

 

The 2024 entrance exam is the previous year entrance exam for the new course.

 Successful applicants for the first semester of national and public universities will be announced, followed by the announcement of the results of the second semester and the middle semester of public universities.In the general selection of private universities, Kinki University and Chiba Institute of Technology are almost confirmed to be the top two in the ranking of universities with a large number of applicants. The end of the 2023 entrance examination is in sight, but it is still a time of change, such as the scale of the chain of additional acceptances due to the impact of additional acceptances from large private universities in urban areas.

 It's a little early at that time, but it's time to think about the 2024 entrance exam that the current high school sophomore will be taking. The biggest feature of the 2024 entrance examination is that it is the year before the 2025 entrance examination.As you know, the 2025 entrance exam, which is currently being taken by first-year high school students, will be the first entrance exam since the high school curriculum guidelines were revised.It is the so-called new course entrance examination.

 

Some confusion in the first year of the new course entrance examination

 Since the beginning of the 1990s, the new course entrance examination has been held three times. In 1997, 2006, and 2015, only mathematics and science were conducted first in the 2015 entrance examination, so to be exact, subjects other than mathematics and science will also be included in the new course entrance examination for the 2016 entrance examination. will be included in the 2015 entrance examination.

 Each session had its own characteristics, but in 1997, the average score of subjects for old course students in the National Center Test for University Entrance Examinations was particularly low in old mathematics II, and the score gap between new and old course students widened. , Since there was no score adjustment, it became a social problem from the perspective of fairness. 2006 was the first year of entrance examinations for the 2015-credit subjects of science physics, chemistry, biology, and earth science, which were organized into General Science A and General Science B, but more than that, it was the first year in which listening was introduced to the National Center Test. There was some confusion due to unfamiliarity with implementation and equipment operation. In XNUMX, it was said that the burden of science subjects became heavy for examinees, such as subjects based on science (basic physics, basic chemistry, etc.) in the National Center Test, but there was no major confusion. I couldn't get it.

 

The year before the entrance examination for the new course, the tendency of current students to be safety-oriented

 The change in the system is unfamiliar not only to the applicants, but also to the universities that conduct the entrance examinations, so it is undeniable that operations will become more unstable than in previous years.However, I would venture to say that the university is also preparing thoroughly so that the students can demonstrate their usual strengths.It's not like I'm making any complicated preparations.However, the reality is that human errors still occur on site due to extreme tension.

 Due to concerns about such changes in the system, there is a tendency for students who take the entrance exams of the previous year to take the entrance exams for the new courses firmly, so-called safety-oriented.Especially in the 2005 entrance exam, the year before the introduction of listening comprehension to the National Center Test, we saw quite a steady test-taking behavior.Specifically, the number of applicants to medium-sized private universities will increase and become more difficult, and the number of applicants for entrance examinations within the year, such as comprehensive selection and school recommendation selection, will increase.I can understand the feelings of examinees who want to finish the entrance examination quickly and safely.However, if there are no major changes in subjects and subjects, there may be years when students are not extremely safety-oriented.

 Then, when we think about the 2025 entrance exam, although it will not have as much impact as the introduction of listening, the mandatory examination of the subject "Information" in the common university entrance exam will have a big impact.Also, for current high school sophomores and above, general geography, general history, and public affairs are unknown subjects.Even liberal arts students may feel a psychological burden if mathematics C is included in the questions.Looking at it this way, it is expected that active students will become more safety-oriented, and there will be more cases where they are conscious of entering the entrance exam within the year.

 However, in the first year, exam questions for students in the old course will be prepared, and even if mathematics C is required for liberal arts students, only "vector" will be subject, so there will be no change from now, and the university entrance examination center It is also true that the "Information" for former course students published on the website has an atmosphere that seems to be a bonus point when looking at the prototype problems.For this reason, even if you are a student of the old course, there is a possibility that you will have a chance to take the exam if you are very particular about entering a difficult university.However, this area is beyond the realm of expectations.

 

Not only students but also universities are oriented to entrance exams within the year?

 In the 2024 entrance examination, I mentioned the possibility that applicants will be oriented to take the entrance examination by the end of the year, but in fact, it seems that quite a number of private universities are also considering securing applicants by taking the entrance examination within the year.In other words, I'm oriented to the university entrance examination within the year.

 Especially in the last few years, it is expected that private universities, which have not been able to secure sufficient enrollment through general selection, will aim to secure enrollment through year-end entrance examinations, which have a high rate of admission procedures for successful applicants.In addition to this, it can be inferred that the number of people who pass the general selection will decrease by increasing the number of students enrolled in the entrance examinations at mid-level private universities and above, as a measure to improve the competitive rate.The Hotarusetsu Jidai Special Edition, "The True Power of Universities" (Obunsha Mook), is a valuable information magazine that allows you to check the ratio of new students entering national, public, and private universities within the year. So, the number of universities whose breakdown is not published in this information magazine is increasing.It seems that this is to hide the increase in the ratio of entrance exams within the year.

 Against this background, it is expected that many private universities will increase the number of successful applicants in the school-recommendation-type selection and comprehensive-type selection in the 2024 entrance examination (dramatically at some private universities).This is a great thing for prospective students, but many of them apply for entrance exams within the year, so it is necessary to think carefully before applying.

 

 

 On the other hand, even if each university wants to attract more students during the year's entrance exams, there is the question of whether they can actually secure enough numbers.Although it is difficult to estimate the actual number of applicants aiming to take the entrance examination within this year, according to the materials of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology's research collaborators meeting (Fig. is about 21 nationwide.This is the main target for private universities that want to increase the number of enrollees during the year's entrance examination.On the other hand, looking at the materials of the University Entrance Examination Center, there are about 10 students who take the common university entrance exam in three subjects (≒applicants for private universities) <Figure XNUMX>.

 

 

 Assuming that this 10 people are thinking about taking the entrance exam in the general selection and do not think about applying for the entrance exam within the year, the above 21 people - 10 people = 11 people who are applying to private universities and taking entrance exams this year. It can be estimated that it is a layer that can be induced toWhether this number of 11 is too many or too few is a matter of interpretation, but since the students are going through the general selection process, it is reasonable to think that they are aiming for a certain level of popularity at a private university. I think.What should be done to direct the minds of such examinees toward comprehensive selection and school recommendation type selection?This is the age of VUCA.

 

Satoru Kobe (educational journalist)

Education Journalist/University Entrance Examination Writer/Researcher
After joining Kawaijuku Educational School in 1985, he has been engaged in collecting and disseminating university entrance examination information for over XNUMX years, and is also in charge of editing the monthly magazine "Guideline".
After retiring from Kawaijuku in 2007, he has been engaged in entrance examination work such as pass / fail judgment and entrance examination system design at a university in Tokyo, and is also in charge of student recruitment and public relations work.
After retiring from university in 2015, he worked as a writer and editor for Asahi Shimbun Publishing's "University Ranking" and Kawaijuku's "Guideline", and also contributed to Nihon Keizai Shimbun and Mainichi Newspapers.After that, he worked for a national research and development agency, and since 2016 has been consulting to support various issues at universities. KEI Advanced (Kawaijuku Group) conducts simulations and market trend surveys using entrance examination data, as well as formulating future concepts and medium-term plans, establishing new faculties, and supporting the design of entrance examination systems.
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