2023年の日本国内の出生数(確定値)が72万7,277人となり、2022年と比べると5.6%減となりました。2024年度入試の18歳人口は、106万3,451人ですので30万人以上減少しています。18年後には受験対象者が大幅に減少することが見えている環境の中で、大学はどのような学生募集戦略をとっていくのでしょうか?そして、各地方都市はどのような生き残り戦略をとっていくのでしょうか?

 

``Establishment of new public universities,'' ``Establishment of new departments at public universities,'' and ``Private universities becoming public'' are attracting attention.

 Since universities are attended by many students, they naturally have a great deal to do with community development. Under these circumstances, the following are attracting a lot of attention: ``Establishment of new public universities,'' ``Establishment of new departments at public universities,'' and ``Private universities becoming public.''

 Regarding the "establishment of new public universities," there is support such as local university and regional industry revitalization grants, but the recruitment of students for the newly established "Sanjo City University" in Sanjo City, Niigata Prefecture, which has a population of about 9, has been successful. Because of this, it is gaining even more attention. The ``establishment of new faculties at public universities'' is a fund aimed at strengthening the functions of universities and technical colleges that are driving growth fields, and is attracting attention because of the continuous support provided by the government. In addition, 12 universities have already had a track record of turning private universities into public institutions, making it easier to estimate whether they can continue to do so, not only in terms of student recruitment but also in terms of budget. Local governments continue to take action.

 The purpose of local governments is regional revitalization, and even if students gather at universities, there is no point unless they connect with local industries, encourage students to stay in the area, and revitalize the town. One indicator for encouraging students to remain in the region is the ratio of public universities in their prefecture. I would like to think about future student recruitment while looking at this home-prefecture ratio by department.

The ratio of public universities in their prefectures varies depending on departmental system and location. There is a large difference between 10% and 90%.

 We calculated the home prefecture ratio for each faculty based on the home prefecture (prefecture where the high school is located) of students who entered public universities in 2023, and ranked them in descending order.

 The school with the lowest self-prefecture ratio is the Faculty of Information Studies at Fukuchiyama Public University in Kyoto Prefecture. Fukuchiyama City is located in Kyoto Prefecture, but it is quite close to Hyogo Prefecture and is connected by railway. Therefore, although we cannot simply look at the data, we can see that the faculty recruits students from a relatively wide range of areas, rather than from local students. The Faculty of Letters of Tsuru University of Literature in Yamanashi Prefecture is the second lowest. This university is famous for its nationally recruiting teacher training program. The third lowest is the Faculty of Regional Development at Nara Prefectural University in Nara Prefecture. There are large cities such as Kyoto, Osaka, and Kobe in the vicinity, and many students enroll from these cities, so the home-prefecture ratio is extremely low.

 On the other hand, if you rank the prefectures in descending order of their own prefecture ratio, it will look like this: Geographically, Hokkaido and Aichi prefectures have a high percentage of students attending their own prefectures, and in terms of undergraduate programs, there are many health and nursing departments. The Chitose University of Science and Technology Faculty of Science and Technology has an enrollment ratio of 2023% from the prefecture in 88.9, but with the semiconductor manufacturer Lapidus starting full-scale operations in Chitose City from 2027, it is likely that students from a wider area will be admitted in the future. It is expected that recruitment will occur.

There are several cities that are planning to establish new public universities, including Kitakami City in Iwate Prefecture, Yokkaichi City in Mie Prefecture, and Saga Prefecture.

 Continuous support from the fund has begun to strengthen the functions of universities and technical colleges that drive growth fields, and support 1, ``Support for transitioning to growth fields,'' targets not only private universities but also public universities. As a result, some local governments are considering establishing new ones. Currently, the cities that have announced plans to establish new public universities include Kitakami City in Iwate Prefecture, Yokkaichi City in Mie Prefecture, and Saga Prefecture, and there are also plans to turn public junior colleges into universities.

 The companies that have announced plans for the establishment of new departments at public universities (partial reorganization) are Asahikawa City University (Asahikawa City, Hokkaido), Yokohama City University (Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture), Nagano University (Nagano City, Nagano Prefecture), and Fukuyama University. These include City University (Fukuyama City, Hiroshima Prefecture) and Kitakyushu City University (Kitakyushu City, Fukuoka Prefecture).

 Additionally, the following universities are considering making private universities public: Tohoku Public Interest University (Sakata City, Yamagata Prefecture), Chiba University of Science (Choshi City, Chiba Prefecture), Nagahama BioUniversity (Nagahama City, Shiga Prefecture), and Mimasaka University. (Tsuyama City, Okayama Prefecture), Kyushu University of Nursing and Welfare (Tamana City, Kumamoto Prefecture), and the editorial department is aware of five universities. In both cases, universities and local governments are continuing to discuss their survival.

Even if the capacity is filled with students from other prefectures, there is little point if the students do not stay in the area. What are the results for employment and graduate school admissions at Sanjo City University, which opened with a curriculum that collaborates with local companies?

 There is no doubt that public universities have lower tuition fees than private universities, making it easier to recruit students. If you want to secure admission capacity, you can attract students not only from the local area but also from surrounding prefectures, so it may be relatively easy to do so unless you consider the impact on surrounding private universities.

 However, if the students who gather do not stay in the area where the university is located and mostly find employment in the Tokyo metropolitan area or the Kansai area, the prospects for the development of local industry will be slim and the population will not increase. Additionally, in the case of science and engineering departments, there is also the issue of admission to graduate school. Even if you do well when you enter undergraduate school, if you go to graduate school and go to another prefecture, you will not know what will happen to your employment after that.

 Sanjo City University, which opened in 2021, has been successful in recruiting undergraduate students and has become a model for establishing new public universities in rural areas. I have to try and verify the effectiveness. I think that by conducting a survey of graduates, we can finally get a better idea of ​​how students move forward after finding employment.

The analysis indicator for cities at risk of disappearing is "young girls." Do we need a faculty where women stay in the community?

 Connecting the region's distinctive industries with the university will revitalize the town. Even if an industry is revitalized in this way, the people who work there do not necessarily live in the area. It is also possible to live and commute to a nearby core city. Furthermore, regarding the question of whether the population will increase, ``young women'' is also closely related to the analysis of cities at risk of disappearing, as announced by the Japan Creation Council, a group of private sector experts. In short, in the long run, whether or not girls remain in the community is becoming more important.

 The Japanese government is currently promoting the establishment of new science, engineering, and information science departments, which are fields in which an overwhelming majority of male applicants apply. In this sense as well, it is becoming important to increase the number of women in science, engineering, and information science departments.

Measures related to new university establishments take time to produce results. Entrance examination measures such as ``regional employment quotas'' are being considered, which are likely to have an immediate effect.

 ``Private universities becoming public'' has already been implemented in 12 universities, and although some results are being seen, it is difficult to prove that this is correct due to differences in geographical conditions, regional industries, and other conditions. Regarding the ``establishment of new public universities'' and ``the establishment of new departments at public universities,'' they are only just getting started, and it will likely take some time until detailed results are available. While we are thinking like this, the population continues to decline.

 Recognizing the need for immediate measures, local governments with money are taking measures such as making high school education free of charge and public universities free of charge. Various measures are being implemented at the same time, but it takes time to verify the effectiveness of university-related measures. Therefore, there is a trend to implement measures with immediate effect at existing universities, and there is also a movement to introduce regional quotas such as the ``Miyazaki Prefecture employment quota'' for school recommendation-based selection, such as the University of Miyazaki.

More measures are needed to promote university admissions in rural areas

 Higher education is becoming more important as we live in a world that requires "general knowledge," but while there are cities such as Tokyo where the university entrance rate exceeds 70%, there are many other prefectures where the rate remains in the 40% range. , there are considerable regional differences. By increasing the rate of students going on to university, the number of people receiving advanced education will increase, which could lead to the revitalization of local industry.

 Scholarships in the form of individual subsidies, such as the new study support system for higher education, are rapidly increasing, and some progress has been made from an economic perspective. There is also a characteristic that it cannot be used unless it is used, and if we consider further expansion of the scope, I think it will be necessary to design a system that can be used more naturally.

(Reference) “Industry-academia collaboration training” conducted by Sanjo City University with over 150 companies full of Tsubame-Sanjo spirit

 The self-prefecture ratio of "Sanjo City University" in Sanjo City, Niigata Prefecture is 2023% in 52.3. One of the features of this university is the ``Industry-Academia Collaborative Practicum,'' which allows students to choose a training site from over 150 local companies. In the first year, there are lectures on the history of Tsubame-Sanjo and from management, and in the second year, ``industry-academia collaboration training'' is held for two weeks at each of three companies, for a total of six weeks.・Focus on one aspect of development and production, choose your desired training location, and conduct a 1-week long-term training. When the university opened, it received donations from a local plastic mold manufacturer, and local companies cooperated in practical training, making it a model for new public universities in regional cities.

 The school will open in 2021, so the first graduates will be in March 2025. Attention is being paid to whether the recruitment of students will continue in the future, what will be the percentage of students who find employment or go on to graduate school, and if they do find a job, what kind of region or industry will they choose?

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