The "State of Admissions Selection at National, Public and Private Universities," published annually by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, includes the results of entrance exams by national and public university in addition to the results by entrance exam category, such as general selection, school recommendation selection, and comprehensive selection. According to this, for the 2024 entrance exam, the total number of students recruited by national and public universities is 12, and the number of students admitted is 9,488. In other words, the number of students admitted is 13 more than the number of students recruited. This is common for private universities, but national and public universities have a great influence on student recruitment at private universities, so 4,226 is a large number.

 

The success rate of private university general admissions has been steadily declining

 The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology's "Status of Admissions Selection at National, Public and Private Universities," published in November last year, lists the number of applicants, test takers, successful applicants and enrollees by entrance examination category, such as general selection, school recommendation selection and comprehensive selection (by national university, public university and private university operator). In addition, for national and public universities, the total number of applicants, test takers, successful applicants and enrollees is listed by university for all entrance examination categories. Since we know the number of successful applicants and enrollees, we can calculate the enrollment rate, which is how many of the successful applicants enrolled. Although it is a bit misleading, I think it is fine to call it the yield rate, so I will refer to it as the yield rate below.

 Summary table of the whole<Chart 1>Looking at the table, the total number of applicants, successful applicants, and enrolled students at national and public universities is higher than last year. On the other hand, the number of applicants, successful applicants, and enrolled students at private universities is lower than last year, resulting in a shortage of 1 students compared to the number of students being recruited. Currently, about 6,473% of private universities are under-enrolled, so this figure reflects that (Survey by the Japan Private School Promotion and Mutual Aid Corporation). In addition, the yield rate is 6% for national universities, 93.2% for public universities, and 82.6% for private universities. Although the trend is the same as in previous years, the yield rate at private universities has been declining for the past few years. The figures in this summary table include not only the results of general selection at private universities, which has a high number of applications and a low yield rate, but also the results of school recommendation selection and comprehensive selection, which have certain restrictions on applications and a high yield rate.

 So I took private universities' general selection exams and made a graph showing the changes over time.<Chart 2>As the graph shows, the success rate for general selection, which was 2010% in 30, has continued to decline, dropping significantly since the 2020 entrance exams. The first entrance exams during the COVID-2021 pandemic were held in 17, so it is unlikely that this is due to the impact of the pandemic, but even so, the success rate has now fallen to 2010%, roughly half of what it was in XNUMX. Although the total number of successful applicants has decreased, it is believed that the decline is due more to the decline in the number of applicants and the increase in capacity at national and public universities.

[Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology] Outline of the implementation status of entrance examinations for national, public and private universities and junior colleges in the second year of Reiwa
https://www.mext.go.jp/b_menu/houdou/2020/1414952_00007.htm

[Japan Private School Promotion and Mutual Aid Corporation] Trends in applications for private universities, junior colleges, etc.
https://www.shigaku.go.jp/s_center_d_shigandoukou.htm

Public universities are seeing a noticeable increase in enrollment overcapacity, with some exceeding their enrollment quotas by over 120%

 The enrollment rate of national and public universities is over capacity at national universities (+2024 students) and 103% (+2,832 students) in the 106 entrance exam results. The number of students is higher at national universities, but the overcapacity rate is higher at public universities. This is thought to be due to the fact that some public universities hold mid-term exams in addition to early and late exams, and some universities, such as Akita International University and Niigata Prefectural University, hold entrance exams on separate dates, making it difficult to predict the success rate. However, the overcapacity rate of Akita International University, which holds separate exams on separate dates, which is the most difficult to predict, is 1,906%, and Niigata Prefectural University is 103%, but there are also universities with overcapacity rates that exceed this.

 There are 110 public universities with an over-enrollment rate of over 2024% for the 15 entrance examinations, including some with an over-enrollment rate of 122%. With the exception of Tokyo Metropolitan University, Osaka Municipal University, Nagoya City University, University of Hyogo, and Kitakyushu City University, most public universities are small, single-discipline universities, so an over-enrollment rate of a few to a dozen students leads to a high over-enrollment rate. There is also one national university with an over-enrollment rate of over 110%, but since it is a single-discipline university with a small enrollment capacity, it is likely that the 1% over-enrollment rate was only exceeded by an over-enrollment rate of around 10 students.

 However, private universities in the same area may have mixed feelings about accepting more students than their admission quota, even if the local public university's admission quota is around 50. In that respect, because national universities have larger admission quotas than public universities, even an over-enrollment rate of a few percent can have a significant impact on the area.

Excess tuition fees from national universities are paid into the national treasury

 In the case of national universities, what happens to tuition income for excess enrollment? Upon investigation, we found that a notice from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (dated February 2023, 2, "Regarding the suppression of excess enrollment in faculties of national universities from 3 onwards") states that "for national university faculties with an excess enrollment rate of 110% or more (100% or more for small faculties with an admission capacity of 120 or less) the amount of tuition income equivalent to the number of students will be paid to the national treasury at the end of the medium-term target period." Some students (such as international students) are excluded from the count, but it does not seem to simply increase income.

 However, if you read this notice as it is, you can read that if the overage rate is less than 110%, it can be considered as increased revenue. In other words, if 100 more students are admitted than the admission capacity, the current standard amount is 53 yen per year, so even if you calculate it roughly at 5800 yen, it will be 50 yen * 50 students = 100 million yen, which is a reasonable amount. In fact, there are two national universities with overages of more than 5,000 students in the 100 entrance exam results, but both have overage rates of less than 2024%, so it will be an increase in revenue.

 I don't think they are consciously trying to increase the number of students to that extent,<Chart 2>As stated above, the average success rate for general selection at national universities is 92%, so it is quite difficult to misread the success rate. In the case of national universities that do not have medical or science and engineering faculties and have limited revenue of their own, it may be tempting to misread and enroll more students than the capacity at less than 110%, as this will lead to a slight increase in revenue. However, this is a problem for private universities located in the same area. By the way, the number of excess students is 1 for national and public universities in the Tokyo metropolitan area (3 metropolis and 727 prefectures). I don't think this is immediately putting a strain on private universities' student recruitment, but from the perspective of small private universities, this is a number that we would like to see some of.

Satoru Kobe (educational journalist)

Education Journalist/University Entrance Examination Writer/Researcher
After joining Kawaijuku Educational School in 1985, he has been engaged in collecting and disseminating university entrance examination information for over XNUMX years, and is also in charge of editing the monthly magazine "Guideline".
After retiring from Kawaijuku in 2007, he has been engaged in entrance examination work such as pass / fail judgment and entrance examination system design at a university in Tokyo, and is also in charge of student recruitment and public relations work.
After retiring from university in 2015, he worked as a writer and editor for Asahi Shimbun Publishing's "University Ranking" and Kawaijuku's "Guideline", and also contributed to Nihon Keizai Shimbun and Mainichi Newspapers.After that, he worked for a national research and development agency, and since 2016 has been consulting to support various issues at universities. KEI Advanced (Kawaijuku Group) conducts simulations and market trend surveys using entrance examination data, as well as formulating future concepts and medium-term plans, establishing new faculties, and supporting the design of entrance examination systems.
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