The reason for presenting Chart 1 at the beginning is that we wanted to share the reality of the overall picture of higher education institutions and tune our vision.If anything, the stereotyped tone that talks about the university only by the value of the deviation value bias, and cuts off the lower universities, junior colleges, vocational schools, etc. in the deviation value occupies the majority.
However, when considering the future of higher education in Japan, where the birthrate is declining rapidly, not only the axis of "scholastic ability" but also the axis of "tuition fees" and "share of the total number of current students" are shared by higher education institutions. I think it is important to grasp the whole picture and face the challenges of human resource development in Japan.
Chart 1 (Changes in the 1-year-old population) shown in "Current Status of University Reform and Its Whereabouts Part 18"According to the report, the rate of enrollment in all higher education institutions in the 18-year-old population is 80%.The rate of enrollment in national, public and private universities is 51.5%.Conversely, 18% of the 20-year-old population does not go on to higher education institutions, and 28.5% of high school graduates go on to higher education institutions such as junior colleges and vocational schools where tuition fees are low.Since there are as many as 45% of universities with less than the capacity, unlike the days when students went on to junior colleges and vocational schools without entering the university, not only the existence value of the university declined, but also the burden of school expenses was a bottleneck. It will be clear that he has not gone on to college next door.
It has been a long time since the debate that there are too many universities in Japan has begun, but in fact, the rate of enrollment in Japanese universities is low even when compared among OECD member countries (34 advanced countries).Why is that?
Compared to OECD member countries, Japanese universities have high tuition fees, but the ratio of education spending to the total national spending is low.In other words, the burden on the household is heavy.Therefore, the percentage of students receiving scholarships is high, exceeding 50%, but most of the scholarships are student loans, and the number of scholarship recipients who do not need to repay is as low as 8%, which is higher than in other countries. The peculiarity is outstanding.
Despite the declining birthrate, the burden on families to receive higher education is currently very high.
The growth rate of university enrollment is also sluggish compared to other countries, indicating that it has reached its limit.
In the future, Japan will enter an era of rapid declining birthrate and aging population.It is predicted that the decrease in the working population will increase the pressure to shrink the economy and worsen the national finances, and the allocation of public funds to higher education institutions cannot be expected.At the same time, the downturn in the economy is thought to worsen the economic situation of each household, so the burden of higher education will increase.
Those who wish to go on to university who have to pay the tuition fee for four years will move toward not choosing the university unless they have a great deal of learning outcomes.
In the future, higher education institutions will strongly demand investment-to-outcomes [learning outcomes / tuition investment] rather than ROI [return / cost].
Continue to the second part →→→[2] Three external pressures to accelerate university selection toward 2100
