A joint research team of Tohoku University's International Research Institute of Disaster Science and Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. is using data from a seismometer observation network provided by the research partner, the Institute of Geological Sciences, to monitor the entire city during an earthquake. We have developed a technology that can instantly predict building damage.

 This technology first performs an earthquake simulation of the entire city in question, and then analyzes a large number of calculation cases to understand the spatial characteristics of the city. The extent of damage can be expressed numerically by calculating the propagation of seismic motion from faults through the ground to the ground surface, and the shaking of all buildings due to ground surface vibrations. By analyzing the results of this city-scale simulation in many cases using data science technology, we can derive the characteristics of building damage in the city.

 In the event of an earthquake, by combining building vibration data obtained from existing observation networks with spatial characteristics known in advance, it is possible to instantly predict building damage throughout the city. The system is said to be useful for emergency support and emergency recovery as it can immediately assess the damage situation for the entire city from information from a small number of observation points. For example, it can predict things like, ``Which area of ​​this city has suffered the most damage?'' ``What is the extent of damage to important facilities such as evacuation centers and hospitals?'' ``Which roads are impassable due to collapsed buildings?'' Furthermore, by being able to predict the extent of damage to a city even before an earthquake occurs, it will be useful for the development of urban disaster prevention projects that respond to various disaster patterns.

 In order to implement this technology, our group is conducting empirical research targeting earthquakes along the Nagamachi-Rifu line fault zone in Aoba Ward, Sendai City, Miyagi Prefecture, and approximately 3 buildings. It is expected that the accuracy of earthquake damage prediction will further improve, and that it will be applied to disaster prevention projects through technological implementation.

reference:[Tohoku University] Develops technology that can instantly predict damage to an entire city through real-time monitoring of seismic motion (PDF)

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