Guidelines such as the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) recommend taking breaks during working hours depending on the degree of heat and work intensity to reduce the risk of heat stroke.It has been pointed out that as the temperature rises due to global warming, longer breaks will be required, which may reduce economic productivity.

　Therefore, the research group combined multiple climate models and economic models to estimate the economic loss of the entire world.Specifically, we have set four types of climate scenarios with different temperature rises in 2100 and three types of socio-economic scenarios depending on the degree of economic development.For each combination, an economic model called AIM / CGE was used to calculate the additional cost of heat stroke prevention.This model can take into account various socio-economic conditions such as future population, GDP, progress in energy technology, and the cost of renewable energy.

　As a result, in the scenario of the most global warming (temperature rise by 4.5 ° C), the annual GDP loss at the end of the 21st century was found to be 2.6 to 4.0% worldwide.Above all, when economic development did not progress, the loss was the largest (4.0% of GDP) due to the low air-conditioning penetration rate and labor-intensive economic conditions.

　On the other hand, in a scenario where the goals of the Paris Agreement are achieved and the temperature rise is less than 2 ° C compared to before the Industrial Revolution, the annual additional cost is less than 0.5% of global GDP, regardless of economic development conditions. It was suppressed to.This means that achieving the 2 ° C target of the Paris Agreement will benefit the global economy.

Paper information:[Environmental Research Letters] Cost of preventing workplace heat-related illness through worker breaks and the benefit of climate-change mitigation (English)