According to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, the estimate is based on the number of students entering university in each prefecture, which is calculated by multiplying the 18-year-old population by the university enrollment rate, and adding the number of foreign students accepted.It is assumed that the university enrollment rate will continue to grow until FY2050.

　As a result, about 2040 people from each prefecture will go on to university, with the national university entrance rate in 61.2 calculated as 57.9% for men and 59.6% for women, totaling 49%.The total number of university enrollments, including the estimated number of foreign students, is about 51.

　Although there are some fluctuations in the total number of university entrants in the 2040-2050 academic year, the results show that it will generally remain around 50.This is due to the decrease in the 18-year-old population due to the declining birthrate, and assuming that the current total university quota is maintained, the capacity sufficiency rate is expected to be around 80%.Even if the ratio of international students rises to over 7%, the average of the seven developed countries, it is expected to remain below 8%.

　Universities across the country have already been forced to stop recruiting as the shortage of students has become more serious, especially in rural areas and women's universities.If the education ministry's predictions are true, there is no doubt that the shortage of students and under-capacity will become even more severe.It seems that the university winter era is now in full swing.

reference:[Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology] Central Council for Education University Subcommittee (174th) Meeting materials [Document 5-1] Future estimates of university enrollment, etc. (PDF)