Associate Professor Lee Seirin of the Graduate School of Integrated Life Sciences, Hiroshima University constructed a mathematical model to capture the "vacant house problem" in Japan and proposed the optimal tax policy to reduce vacant houses.
Faced with a super-aging population and a declining population, the serious vacant house problem is expected to reach 2033% in 30.5 throughout Japan.No fundamental solution has been presented, and local governments are implementing policies without guarantee of future effectiveness.
Since it is very difficult to implement experimental policies for such social problems, in this study, we constructed a mathematical model that can verify the effectiveness of policies.
With this model, trends in vacant houses can be predicted from the current population distribution and economic scale.This makes it possible to propose optimal tax policies that reflect regional characteristics.
Associate Professor Lee explained three realistic tax policies: "subsidy policy for disposal of vacant houses", "policy for reducing property tax rate related to land", and "policy for eliminating special measures for property tax in housing (vacant houses)". As a result of investigating the effectiveness of each of these, it was discovered that the effect of the policy differs depending on the population distribution and economic power of the region.It also clarified how each policy will affect the finances of local governments, and in local governments where financial pressure is a concern, the degree of competition between effective utilization caused by the spatial arrangement (that is, location) of vacant houses was used. It was shown that if "space policy" is carried out together with tax policy, it will reduce the number of vacant houses and at the same time it will be more advantageous to the local government's finances.
Since the mathematical model of this study can reflect the data and situation of each region in detail, it is useful for examining the effectiveness of the vacant house policy in advance.In addition, by simulating the policy, it is possible to show the extent of the impact on the finances of the local government with concrete numerical values, so it is expected that it can be used as a decision material for policy implementation, and it is expected to be implemented in the future. ..
Paper information:[Japan Journal of Industrial and Applied Mathematics] Mathematical modeling and regionality-based optimal policy to reduce empty houses, Akiya, in Japan
