Japan is shifting to a post-growth (non-growth / non-expansion) era due to the declining birthrate and aging population and changes in the industrial structure. is required.

　This time, Kyoto University utilized Hitachi's AI technology to build a causal relationship model for 149 social factors such as "declining birthrate" and "environmental destruction." Approximately 2018 future scenario predictions were made in the 2052 years from 35 to 2 by simulation using AI, and they were classified into 23 representative scenario groups.

　Since the scenario is largely divided into urban-intensive and rural-distributed, the time when the scenario groups diverge from each other in terms of whether the society is sustainable or catastrophic. And analyze the factors.Based on this, we identified important social factors and their timing for a sustainable future, and proposed the following policies.

　In the rural decentralization scenario, the population is dispersed to rural areas, resulting in a recovery in fertility rates and a reduction in disparities.Increased personal healthy life expectancy and well-being.These tend to be the opposite in urban concentration scenarios.However, in the decentralized type, the government's finances and environment (CO2 emissions, etc.) may deteriorate.

　From the perspective of sustainability, a regional decentralized scenario is desirable, but in order to realize branching in that direction, environmental taxation that promotes resource productivity, activation of renewable energy, enhancement of regional transportation, etc. will be achieved within 8 to 10 years. Effective policy implementation is required.Furthermore, in order to avoid unsustainability, it is necessary to continuously implement policies that enhance the economic cycle such as local tax revenue, energy self-sufficiency rate, and employment until about 17 to 20 years later.

reference:[Hitachi, Ltd.] Proposing policies for a sustainable future of Japan by utilizing AI