Professor Masahiro Abe of Chuo University announced "Future Estimate of Labor Market 2030" based on the result of joint research with Parsol Research Institute.
それによれば、2030年の人手不足は深刻化が進み、人手不足の推計値（労働供給－労働需要）は2020年384万人、2025年505万人、2030年644万人となる。各分野別で人手不足が最も生じるのは、産業別ではサービス業の400万人、次いで医療・福祉の187万人、職業別では専門的・技術的職業従事者の212万人、都道府県別では東京の133万人である。
He also points out that the number of women, seniors, and foreigners working as a countermeasure against labor shortages will increase, and that productivity will be improved through technological innovations such as AI.If we can increase the number of working women by 102 million, seniors by 163 million, foreigners by 81, and technological innovations such as AI to replace 298 million, the shortage of 644 million will be filled.
2030年時点で働く女性を102万人（女性の25～29歳の労働力率88.0％が45～49歳まで継続すると仮定した場合の数）増やすには、未就学児童の保育の受け皿として、116.2万人分（必要数389.7万人分－現状273.5万人分）追加する必要がある。
As a suggestion based on these results, first of all, if wages do not rise, the number of labor shortages will further increase, so the government and companies should make efforts to raise wages.He also said that this estimate does not take into account skill mismatches and that workers should acquire the skills required by the market.
Furthermore, although it is important to increase the labor force participation rate of females in order to increase the number of working seniors, the expected increase in the number of people in need of long-term care may hinder female labor participation.Therefore, the government and companies should create a society where they can work while providing long-term care.It also recommends that the increase in foreign workers raises concerns about a significant decrease in average wages, so it is necessary to accept foreign workers and improve working conditions.
