Professor Masaaki Uto of Tokyo City University has revealed that the value of housing assets in the Tokyo area may fall by up to about 2015 trillion yen in the 45 years from 30 to 40.Especially in areas where it takes more than an hour to access from a terminal station in central Tokyo, the value of housing assets will drop by up to 3% or more.
Japan's population has already begun to decline, and it is estimated that the population will peak at 2010 million in 1.3 and decrease to 2065 million in 8,800.It is said that the population of the Tokyo area (Tokyo, Chiba, Saitama, Kanagawa) will begin to decline after 2025.In addition, new housing needs will decline, and asset deflation, that is, housing assets will decrease in many areas.The ratio of real estate to household assets of elderly households is high at about 6%, and there are concerns about the impact of asset deflation on life in old age.
This time, we analyzed the data from 209 to 1984 based on the area of residential area and the average land price announced by the government for 2015 local governments in the Tokyo area, and estimated the change for 2045 years from 30 to XNUMX. bottom.For housing assets, the value of land only, excluding buildings, was calculated.
As a result, in the 2015 years from 2045 to 30, the asset value will increase by a total of 38 trillion yen in the city center (31.9 local governments), but will decrease by a total of 171 trillion yen in the suburbs (71.2 local governments), resulting in a loss for the entire Tokyo area. The amount will be about 39.3 trillion yen. In 96 local governments, the asset value drops by more than 2%, but in local governments where the access time to the central Tokyo terminal station (Tokyo, Shinjuku, Shibuya, etc.) is less than 1 hour, the housing asset value drops by 30% or more in 3 years. .. There is a possibility that 1 to 500 million yen of housing assets will disappear per household.
As a result, housing asset deflation due to population decline will have a major impact not only on rural areas but also on the Tokyo metropolitan area, and there is a possibility that social problems such as restrictions on the choice of place of residence in old age and financial instability will arise in the future. There is.
