The University of Tokyo Spatial Information Science Research Center, Bandai Town and LIFULL Co., Ltd. are simple to discover new vacant house candidates (vacant house reserve forces) using the data of water usage for the past 5 years held by Bandai Town. We verified the validity of the model.
In Bandai Town, Fukushima Prefecture, we conducted a survey of vacant houses throughout the town in 2020, but as the number of single elderly people and elderly couple households increases, there is no measure to grasp the changing situation of vacant houses, and it is left unattended. The more left unattended, the worse the condition of the house, so the challenge was to identify the vacant house as soon as possible and connect it to its utilization.
Therefore, in the joint research now, not only is it possible to discover a vacant house reserve army using a simple model that uses only water usage data, but it is also fixed for properties that have been newly discovered as having the possibility of vacant houses. The asset ledger and the basic resident register were combined, and basic information "to identify the owner and the person to be contacted" was collated.This has made it possible to take an approach that encourages registration in the vacant house bank of the local government as a new candidate for housing and properties to be used for business.
Compared with the result of judging that the house is vacant by visual inspection of the appearance (survey of the actual condition of the vacant house conducted in 2020), the simple model based on the amount of water used this time is the "reproducibility of the vacant house (property judged as vacant by the visual inspection standard of appearance). Of these, how many vacant houses could be predicted) ”was 82.6%.By expanding the definition of "vacant house" * by visual inspection of appearance and water usage, it was found that an additional 8 to 17% of the vacant house reserve force can be extracted from the entire address.
On the other hand, although it was judged to be a non-vacant house by visual inspection of the exterior, the property predicted to be a vacant house by a simple model based on the amount of water used this time may be a vacant house reserve force, so in cooperation with LIFULL, Bandai Town Conducted an additional survey on the owner.As a result, it was judged to be a non-vacant house by visual inspection of the appearance, but in the property predicted to be vacant by the simple model based on the amount of water used this time, the suitability rate of the vacant house (how many of the properties predicted to be vacant was the correct answer? ) Was 68.4%.
In addition, the response rate of the questionnaire survey to vacant house owners was 26.7%, and all the properties targeted for response were vacant houses.About 1% of vacant house owners answered that it is difficult to go to the site, as it takes more than an hour to move from the place of residence to the vacant house by car or train.Regarding the purpose of using vacant houses, "to visit graves and worship Buddhist altars" was also high at about 6%, and owners who answered "I am not thinking about letting go" or "I want to live in the future". Was about 6%.On the other hand, about 4% of vacant house owners answered that they are thinking about selling, renting, or dismantling, suggesting that it is effective in creating opportunities to encourage registration in vacant house banks of local governments. ..
* To define "vacant house", the building, etc. is not actually used intentionally, and it is judged as a vacant house by visual inspection of the exterior and confirmation with the mayor of the administrative district / adjacent resident based on a general vacant house survey. ..This time, we judged that the house was not used for a long period of time as an unoccupied house, collated with the information identified as an unoccupied house by the unoccupied house survey, and confirmed whether it was actually an unoccupied house.
