A research group led by Professor Hiroshi Nishiura of the Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University analyzed population data by industry using a mathematical model, and found that a labor shortage of up to 2050 million people would occur in 930.It has also become clear that the medical and long-term care fields are particularly serious in labor shortages.
The survey analyzes past and future age-specific population structures from data from the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, and past industries and occupations based on labor force surveys and occupational population data from each ministry and agency. Analyze another population.Furthermore, we constructed a mathematical model that predicts supply and demand by industry, and predicted when the balance between supply and demand would be lost.
According to the report, the working population is projected to be short of 2025 million in 330, 2035 million in 520, and 2050 million in 930.It has also become clear that the rapid aging of the population will lead to a particularly large labor shortage in the medical and long-term care fields of all industries.Conversely, the fields of education and construction were expected to be oversupplied due to the impact of the declining birthrate.
The research group believes that it will be necessary to either drastically increase supply or reduce demand.Measures to increase supply include accepting foreign workers and utilizing retired workers and full-time housewives.As a method of restraining demand, it is necessary to utilize information and communication technology including AI (artificial intelligence) and downsize society.
Paper information:[Theoretical Biology and Medical Modeling] Demographic supply-demand imbalance in industrial structure in the super-aged nation Japan
