In Japan, 20 years after the aging of the population, the number of patients with dementia is expected to decrease, according to international joint research by the University of Tokyo, Stanford University, and the Institute for Aging Society.However, it is predicted that the total amount of long-term care costs will increase because the widening health inequalities tend to make the mind and body tired easily and the number of elderly people in a weakened state is expected to increase.
According to the University of Tokyo, the research group has improved the individual-level health change prediction program developed by Stanford University to develop a model that predicts the prevalence of 13 diseases and dysfunctions by age, gender, and academic background.It was used to track how health data for more than 4,500 million elderly people aged 60 would change by 2043.
As a result, the number of dementia patients in 2043 is estimated to be 465 million in Japan, a decrease of 2016 from 510 million in 45.The increase in dementia patients has become an international convention due to the effects of longevity, but the research group recognizes that the population of Japan is declining and the improvement of the health condition of the elderly in Japan is outstanding internationally. It is expected that the number of patients with dementia will decrease.
However, although the decrease in dementia patients was remarkable in men with college graduates or above, it was predicted to increase in men and women with less than college graduates. The duration of dementia during life expectancy over the age of 65 did not change significantly between 2016 and 2043 for men with a college diploma or older, while 22% to 25% for men with a high school diploma and 14 for women with a college diploma. It is predicted to deteriorate from% to 15% and from 23.8% to 24.5% for high school graduates.
It was found that the mental and physical fatigue peculiar to the elderly is easy to get tired, and the rate of complications of frailty syndrome such as weight loss, decreased activity, and decreased walking speed is also high.The research group says that the total cost of long-term care will increase as a result of the need for intensive long-term care.
