If the Tokyo Olympics had not been held, what would have happened to the number of people infected with the new coronavirus?When the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research estimated cases from 42 countries around the world based on public data on new coronavirus infections, it came out that the number of infected people in Japan had been halved.
According to the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research, it is estimated that a research group consisting of Shuhei Nomura and Daisuke Yoneoka, chief researchers of the Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research, Kentaro Fukumoto, professor of law at Gakushuin University, and Takayuki Kawashima, assistant professor at the Tokyo Institute of Technology's School of Information Science and Technology A synthetic control method was performed in which the data were synthesized to create a hypothetical value.
加重平均には新型コロナ関連の公開データから予測因子を抽出し、世界42カ国の事例を参照したところ、東京五輪閉会日時点の人口100万人当たりの7日間平均感染者数109.2人は、推定値の50.6人に対して115.7％多くなっていた。東京五輪期間中の累積感染者数14万3,072人は、推定値の8万9,210人より61.0％多かった。
At the Tokyo Olympics, a bubble system was adopted to block athletes and related parties from the outside world. It is possible that local infections may have increased due to the influence of the general public's adherence to infection control measures.
Paper information:[BMJ Open] Effect of the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympic Games on COVID-19 incidence in Japan: a synthetic control approach
