If the capital is blocked due to the spread of the new coronavirus infection, it is possible to reduce Japan's GDP (total domestic production) by 1% in one month, Associate Professor Hiroyasu Inoue of the Graduate School of Simulation Studies, University of Hyogo, and Waseda University Politics. It was found in a study by Professor Yasuyuki Todo of the Faculty of Economics.
According to the University of Hyogo, Associate Professor Inoue and his colleagues applied information from 160 million companies nationwide compiled by Tokyo Shoko Research, a private credit bureau, to a model showing how companies respond when suppliers and customers reduce supply and demand. ..We estimated the impact on GDP on the assumption that economic activities of companies in Tokyo, except for the daily necessities industry, would stop due to the blockade of the capital.The supercomputer "K computer" is used for enormous calculations.
As a result, it became clear that from the first day of the blockade of the capital, companies that produced less than 2% of the normal amount appeared all over the country, and after that, the corporate activities gradually decreased. One month later, it was found that production declined by 1 trillion yen in Tokyo and 9.3 trillion yen in other regions, for a total of 18.5 trillion yen, pushing down Japan's GDP by 27.8%.
In particular, the impact on areas other than Tokyo tends to increase as the blockade period increases, and this impact can have a serious impact on the lives of citizens.Associate Professor Inoue and his colleagues suggest that if the government decides to block the capital, it will be necessary to take measures to prevent infection of the new corona and at the same time actively mobilize public finances to shorten the blockage period as much as possible.
Paper information:[ArXiv] The propagation of the economic impact through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown against the spread of COVID-19
