The Crisis Management Analysis Task Force, represented by Professor Katsutoshi Yata of the Faculty of Commerce, Kansai University, used a consumer behavior model to predict the number of new coronavirus infections by prefecture at the end of July. The result was 7 in Osaka prefecture.Professor Yada et al. Seem that efficient centralized PCR testing is necessary to ensure the isolation of infected people.
According to Kansai University, Professor Yata and his colleagues predicted the status of new infections in Keihanshin, and found that 275 newly infected people would appear at the end of July if no measures were taken in Osaka Prefecture.Hyogo Prefecture had 7 people, a sharp increase from 158 people as of the 18th.There are 13 people in Kyoto prefecture.Currently, there are only a few clusters, but I think we need to be careful.
In the Tokyo metropolitan area, there are 680 in Tokyo, 118 in Saitama, 95 in Kanagawa, and 101 in Chiba.Currently, it is in the early stages of the second wave of infection, and it is expected that the number of newly infected people will increase significantly in the future, mainly in Tokyo.
Professor Yada et al. Listed Aichi, Shizuoka, and Fukuoka prefectures as other prefectures where the spread of infection is expected in the future.Furthermore, although the number of infected people is not so large at present, we are paying attention to Nagasaki and Hiroshima prefectures as areas where there is concern about future expansion.
As a future measure, it is necessary to intensively perform PCR tests in the early stage of infection to ensure isolation of infected persons.Professor Yada and his colleagues warn that this is the stage at the moment, and if this time is missed, not only will subsequent PCR tests not be fully effective, but many spectators with poor isolation may be produced.
