A research team in the Department of Hygiene, Graduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, said in real time that the cholera outbreak that began in 2016 in Yemen, the Middle East, peaked by the last week of June 2017 and began to decline. I succeeded in demonstrating.It is expected to be of great help in recognizing the epidemic situation and devising future responses.
The Yemeni cholera pandemic has been reported since April 2017, 4, with 27 suspected cases of infection by July 7, of which 17 died.So far, many epidemiological studies have been conducted during the cholera epidemic, but few studies have analyzed observational data in real time and updated forecasts sequentially to help recognize the current situation at the epidemic site.
This time, the research team analyzed weekly data on suspected cases and deaths collected by WHO to make real-time predictions of epidemics. When multiple mathematical models were fitted using the observation data from the 2017th to the 16th week of 26 (April 4th to July 16st), 7 people were found on the "logistic curve" throughout the epidemic. The Richard Model estimates that 1 infected people are expected.In addition, it is certain that the epidemic will start to decrease after the 790,778th week (July 767,029nd), and a monotonous decrease is predicted every time the 27th, 7th, and 2th weeks progress.By the 27th week, Yemen's cholera epidemic had peaked and had just begun to decline, successfully demonstrating in real time by an academically valid method.
By communicating the epidemic dynamics from the present to the future with experts and citizens through real-time prediction, it will be possible to know "what kind of situation is now".Knowing what the situation is now is said to be of great help in recognizing the epidemic situation and devising future responses.
Paper information:[Theoretical Biology and Medical Modeling] Transmission dynamics of cholera in Yemen, 2017: A real time forecasting
