Yuki Furuse, assistant professor at the Institute for Frontier Life and Medical Sciences, Kyoto University, used a difference equation to determine how many people would "transfer" the disease if Santa Claus had an infectious disease such as influenza or measles on Christmas Eve. Analyzed by a mathematical model.This study was featured in a "humorous and ironic" study sponsored by the Australian Medical Society.
In some parts of the world, it is believed that Santa Claus will deliver gifts to children on Christmas Eve, and about 90% of children will be visited by Santa Claus in a previous study (BMJ, 2016). There is.However, it is not clear how much transmission will occur if Santa Claus, which many children come into contact with overnight, has an infection, and how much impact it will have on public health as a result.
Therefore, in this study, we applied the fact that the spread of infectious diseases can be analyzed using a mathematical model based on the difference equation, described the probability that Santa Claus will transmit the disease to children, and how much damage it will cause. Was analyzed by simulation to see if it occurs in the entire population.Consider two types of infectious diseases, influenza and measles.Since Santa Claus's stay time is expected to be very short, such as giving a present, the efficiency of transmission from Santa Claus to children is "the same as the probability of transmitting a disease from a normal adult to a child" or "the probability". The simulation was performed with three patterns of "2%" or "10%".
As a result of the analysis, the epidemic scale of influenza can be increased by 12% if the transmission efficiency between Santa Claus and children is "the same as the probability of transmitting the disease from normal adults to children". Do you get it.However, at "10%" or "1%", the epidemic scale did not increase due to Santa Claus suffering from influenza.
Regarding measles, when the transmission efficiency between Santa Claus and children is "the same as the probability of transmission from a normal adult to a child", there is a 100% chance that a large-scale epidemic will occur, and "1%". At times, it was about the same as the probability of an epidemic being triggered by a normal adult.On the other hand, when the vaccination rate of children was 95%, no large-scale epidemic occurred due to measles-affected Santa Claus, no matter what pattern of simulation was performed.
Recent studies have shown that many infectious disease outbreaks are "super-spreading events" (although the infectivity of each infected person is not that strong, some few infected people are exceptionally ill to many. It is becoming known that it will spread by "to end up".This study is not a very realistic study that Santa Claus causes an infectious disease epidemic, but it is a real situation by showing the extent of the effect of "super spreading event" by a mathematical model. It can be said that it is a scientific knowledge that can be reduced to.
Paper information:[Medical Journal of Australia] What Would Happen if Santa Claus Was Sick? His Impact on Communicable Disease Transmission
