The Recruit Advancement Research Institute, operated by Recruit Co., Ltd., summarizes trends in the national 18-year-old population, enrollment rate, and retention rate over time based on the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology's "School Basic Survey."This time, we reported part of the "Market Report 2022", which was analyzed and compiled based on the "FY12 School Basic Survey (Confirmed Values)" published on December 21, 4.
First, regarding the projection of the 18-year-old population, first graders in 2022 will be 1 years old in 2034. According to the "School Basic Survey", the 18-year-old population by 2034 is predicted to decrease by 18 from 2022 in 112.1 to 2034 in 100.6.Both men and women are on a downward trend, with Tohoku having the highest rate of decline by area (down 11.5% from 1) and Kinki having the highest number of declines (down 2022 from 19.1). Of the 1 prefectures, 2022 prefectures exceeded the 2.3% decrease rate.On the other hand, only three prefectures, Okinawa (+42%), Tokyo (+35%), and Fukuoka (+10%) will increase.
Next, the percentage of current students going on to university is 55.3%, junior college 3.7%, and vocational school 16.7%. 4 out of 3 people are currently enrolled in higher education.Looking at trends over the past 10 years (2013-2022), university +7.9 points, junior colleges -1.7 points, vocational schools -0.3 points, and junior college admission rate in 2022 fell below 4%.Tokyo (1%) has the highest rate of going on to university, Oita (69.8%) has the highest rate of going to junior college, and Niigata (1%) has the highest rate of going to vocational school. It turns out that the rates are different.
The local retention rate ranking for university students is 1st Hokkaido, 2nd Tokai, and 3rd South Kanto.Looking at the local residual increase rate in the past 10 years (2013-2022), it was 1st Hokuriku (111.0), 2nd Koshinetsu (107.6), and 3rd Tohoku (106.8).Figures in parentheses are indices with 2013 as 100.The local retention rate has been on a gradual upward trend in the last 10 years, and even compared to 2016, which was before the stricter quota management that started in 2013 and the impact of COVID-XNUMX, the rate of people going on to local universities in rural areas has decreased. rising.
According to Recruit Advancement Research Institute, the overall trend is that the rate of advancement to higher education institutions remains high, but the decline in the 18-year-old population is accelerating the decline. .It is necessary to map the local retention rate of university students and the decline rate of the 18-year-old population to identify the market by prefecture and conduct student recruitment activities that match the characteristics of the area.
When high school students were asked what items they emphasized when considering going on to higher education, the top answer by far was "Having a faculty/department that they want to study" (76.2%).In addition, 1st reason for going to school outside the hometown was “There was no local school I wanted to go to” (55.0%), 2nd was “There was no local school where I could study the field I wanted to study” (44.9%), 3 “Because I want to have a new experience in a new land” (40.1%) occupies the top three.In order to attract “remaining local” and “influx from outside the local” in recruiting activities, it is necessary to clarify the individuality of the university and maximize its unique value.
