Approximately 4% of experts in Japan who study climate issues in various fields such as engineering, social science, and science predict that the probability of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 is between 33% and 66%. A study conducted by Associate Professor Masahiro Sugiyama of the Future Vision Research Center at the University of Tokyo revealed that this is true. The lack of a national strategy and limited clean energy supplies are thought to be barriers.
According to the University of Tokyo, Associate Professor Sugiyama and colleagues have proposed a new evaluation framework that can take into account national conditions and regional socio-cultural characteristics, which have rarely been taken into account when researching the possibility of a decarbonized transition. Based on this, we conducted a questionnaire survey of 108 experts who study climate issues in Japan.
As a result, more than half of the experts answered that the 2050 net zero goal was "desirable," but about 4% predicted that it would be 33% to 66% likely to achieve it. Many experts cited Japan's unique circumstances, such as the lack of a national strategy and the limited supply of clean energy, as barriers to achieving this goal.
There were also significant differences in feasibility assessments between integrated assessment model researchers who have focused on techno-economic assessments, authors of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, and other experts. .
Associate Professor Sugiyama and his colleagues believe that there is a need to increase opportunities to share knowledge and awareness about the feasibility of net-zero goals, not only within the research community but also between research communities.
Paper information:[Communications Earth & Environment] Perceived feasibility and potential barriers of a net-zero system transition among Japanese experts
