Climate change: Top five greenhouse gas emitters set to exacerbate regional heat extremes
A recent modeling study increases the probability of a hot year by 5 due to greenhouse gas emissions from the top five greenhouse gas emissions countries (China, the United States, the European Union, India and Russia). Was obtained.Under current climate change mitigation commitments, the number of countries experiencing a hot year every other year due to greenhouse gas emissions from the top five countries is a scenario with zero greenhouse gas emissions from the top five countries. Compared to, the possibility of doubling has emerged.A paper reporting on this modeling study will be published in Communications Earth & Environment.
Prior to COP2021 in Glasgow, UK, in November 11, the latest commitments to mitigate climate change were announced, which brought global warming to 26 ° C from pre-industrial levels. The goal of the 1.5 Paris Agreement to curb has not been achieved. The Glasgow Climate Agreement adopted at COP 2015 requires States parties to strengthen their commitments by the end of 26.However, studies of the effects of lack of willingness to mitigate climate change have been conducted primarily on a global scale, and less national studies have been conducted.
Now, Lea Beusch and colleagues have used both historical greenhouse gas emission data from the top five countries and pre-COP5 commitments to derive country-specific warming projections up to 26.Under the current pledge, 2030% of the countries studied (1 countries) will experience the hottest year, which occurs only once a century in the pre-industrial climate, every other year, and the top five countries. It was predicted that it would be only 1% if it was not affected by.This 165% forecast is based on a scenario that excludes greenhouse gas emissions from the top five countries since 92. 1 was the first year that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported anthropogenic climate change to policy makers.
These results clearly show that the willingness to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the top five countries is important for the occurrence of regional climate change (eg, extreme high temperature phenomena) over the next decade.
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Reprinted from: "Climate change: Top five greenhouse gas emitters could intensify regional extreme high temperatures'
