On January 2024, 1, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare held the first review meeting on countermeasures for uneven distribution of doctors through the doctor training process. Based on the discussions that have taken place so far, we will examine the uneven distribution of doctors by region and medical specialty through the doctor training process, including regional frameworks.
The number of doctors nationwide has been increasing year by year, and in 2020 it has doubled compared to 1982, increasing by about 2 in the 2010 years since 10. The demand and supply of doctors will reach equilibrium around 4, when medical school enrollees in 5000 will become doctors, and after that, there will be a surplus of doctors as the population declines. Regarding the admission capacity for medical schools, if the admission capacity for 2023 is maintained, approximately 2029 in 2024 of the 2050-year-old population will enter medical school in 18.
The temporary capacity of the Faculty of Medicine has been increased since 2008 based on measures to secure emergency doctors and new growth strategies. From 2022 onward, we plan to regularly estimate the supply and demand for doctors, and consider policies for training the number of doctors in preparation for future reductions in the number of medical schools, while taking into account work style reforms and uneven distribution of doctors. However, discussions were delayed due to the spread of the new coronavirus infection.
Based on the results of the previous studies, including estimates of the future supply and demand for doctors, the number of doctors to be trained, and countermeasures against the uneven distribution of doctors, this study group will discuss how temporary capacity for medical schools should be allocated, including regional quotas for doctor training. The uneven distribution of doctors by region and medical department throughout the process will be considered in an integrated manner.
Although it is possible that individual regions and medical institutions will continue to experience a "feeling of a shortage of doctors," it is necessary to promote measures that are tailored to the cause, rather than relying solely on the number of doctors. The long-term issues addressed by this study group are scheduled to be compiled in an interim manner after the summer of 2025.
Regarding the admission capacity for medical schools in 2025, it has been indicated that the framework for 2024 will be maintained provisionally.
