According to the verification by Professor Hiroshi Yoshida of Tohoku University Graduate School of Economics, the total fertility rate (* 1) by prefecture in Japan once reached the lowest level in 2005 and is heading toward recovery. Some of the survey data before 2015 was different from 2016 and later, and it was not possible to simply compare, so we independently verified it.
According to Tohoku University, the total fertility rate is calculated using the data of Japanese children for the number of births in the molecule, so it is necessary to use the Japanese population for the female population in the denominator.However, since there was no data on the Japanese population by age other than the census before 2015 in the calculation by prefecture, the total population including foreigners is substituted for the non-census year, and after 2016. Could not be compared with the data.
Therefore, when Professor Yoshida and his colleagues verified the figures before 2015 using the Japanese population as the female population in the denominator until 2000, they recorded the lowest values in 2005 in all prefectures, and then headed for recovery. It turned out that there was.
The biggest recovery from 2005 to 2018 was 0.26 points in Tokushima prefecture.This is followed by Shimane and Miyazaki prefectures with 0.24 points, and Fukuoka, Nagasaki and Kumamoto prefectures with 0.23 points.The recovery was remarkable in western Japan in Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu.On the other hand, recovery has been delayed in the Tohoku region except Aomori prefecture, with Akita prefecture losing 0.01 points.In particular, Akita Prefecture renewed the lowest value in 2010 in 2005, and in 2018 it was the second lowest level after 2010, Iwate Prefecture in 2018, Yamagata Prefecture in 2017 the same as the lowest value in 2005. I was depressed.
Details of this research will be reported at the Tohoku University Society-Impact Research "From an Aging Society with a Declining Birthrate to a Longevity Society with a Rich Heart" symposium on July 2019, 7.
* 1 Total fertility rate This is the average number of children a woman gives birth to in her lifetime, and is the total fertility rate by age group from 1 to 15 years old.
