京都大学などの研究グループが、新型コロナウイルス感染症（COVID-19）罹患時の死亡リスク推定を行った。2020年1月～2月の中国における新型コロナウイルス感染症の患者数と死亡者数データを用い、中国を(1)武漢市、(2)湖北省（武漢市を除く）、(3)中国全体（湖北省を除く）の3地域に区分して2月11日における死亡率を推定した結果、武漢市における死亡率は中国全体（湖北省を除く）の12倍にも及ぶことが明らかとなった。
For emerging infectious diseases such as the new coronavirus infection, infectivity and mortality risk are quantified at an early stage in order to determine the intensity, timing and duration of medical and public health interventions. , It is required to provide it to policy makers as a numerical value.However, when the estimation is performed during the epidemic, there is a problem that it is affected by the bias represented by the time delay.
Time delays occur because of the time it takes from infection / manifestation / diagnosis / reporting to death.The increase in the cumulative number of patients occurs before the increase in the cumulative number of deaths, and the damage to vulnerable people such as the elderly in the early stages of the epidemic also greatly affects the mortality rate.
Therefore, in this study, we obtained data on patients who died from a new coronavirus infection in China from multiple sources, constructed a statistical model to adjust the time delay from admission to death, and then performed three regions by damage scale. The mortality rate (fatal rate) related to the new coronavirus infection was estimated.As a result, the time-delay-adjusted mortality rate on February 3 was estimated to have reached 2% in Wuhan City, which suffered the most damage, while it was estimated to be around 11% in other areas.
It is said that the contribution of medical collapse such as nosocomial infections is considered to be the cause of the high mortality rate in Wuhan City, and the importance of public health intervention (social isolation, movement restriction, etc.) to prevent this collapse is suggested. It can be said that it was.
Paper information:[Emerging Infectious Disease] Estimating Risk for Death from 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease, China, January–February 2020
