If the current university enrollment rate and the number of students enrolled in universities in Tokyo remain unchanged, there is a possibility that a large reduction in capacity of about 2040% will occur at local universities in 40. It was reported to the government's expert meeting to consider relocation to local areas.Former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Hiroya Masuda submitted as an opinion.
Future estimates assume that the current university enrollment rate will be 51.5%, the number of students enrolled in universities in Tokyo will be 14.9, and the capacity of universities in other prefectures will be 44. I predicted the situation.The total number of students going on to university is estimated from the 2030-year-old population based on the university entrance rate, and the number of students going on to universities in other prefectures is calculated by subtracting the number of students going on to universities in Tokyo from the total number of students going on to university.
According to the report, the number of students enrolled in universities in other prefectures was 2015 in 46.9, but it will decrease significantly to 2030 in 37.1 and 2040 in 26.3.
この間、大学進学者総数も2015年度の61.8万人から2030年度52.0万人、2040年度41.2万人と急減するものの、その他の道府県にある大学への進学者数が全体に占める割合は、2015年度の76％が2030年度71％、2040年度64％と急降下する。この場合、その他の道府県にある大学の定員割れは大幅に拡大し、2040年度で40％に達するという。
Conversely, the percentage of students enrolled in universities in Tokyo will rise sharply from 2015% in 24 to 2030% in 29 and 2040% in 36.
Mr. Masuda points out, "As the 18-year-old population declines, if we leave it to the market principle, the management of local universities may deteriorate or withdraw."
