A research group led by Professor Yusuke Hirashima, Associate Professor Masao Nakayama, and Professor Takeshi Asai of the University of Tsukuba Physical Education has developed a method to quantify the difficulty of saving a shot by a soccer goalkeeper as a failure probability.In the past, it was evaluated as "stopping one shot" regardless of whether it was easy or difficult to shoot, but it seems that this method can be used to objectively evaluate the ability of the keeper.
According to the University of Tsukuba, the quantification method applies the speed, course, angle, whether there is a defender to the side or behind the keeper, etc. to the formula, and the difficulty of saving for each shot is used as the failure probability. A mechanism to pop out.As a result, the keeper who saves a difficult shot is given a high evaluation, and the performance of the game can be judged by an objective number.
The research group used the data of 2014 shots in the frame shot in all 64 games of the 587 Brazil World Cup as a sample and verified whether the calculated failure probability was valid, and 85.9% was judged to be correct, which is valid. Was judged to be high.
In recent years, attempts to quantify and objectively evaluate soccer performance have been continued at home and abroad, but the save rate, which is an index of the keeper, does not take into consideration the difficulty of shooting.However, by using this method, it is possible to evaluate the ability of players who are evaluated as good keeper by numerically by firing super saves of difficult shots such as Neuer of Germany and Buffon of Italy.
Paper information:[Physical education research] Verification of regression equation that predicts the probability of goalkeeper's shoot stop failure in soccer
