Professor Shinichiro Fujimori of the Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto University, Ritsumeikan University, and the National A research team from the Environmental Research Institute showed.
According to Kyoto University, the research team will use a simulation model that predicts the future from socioeconomic conditions related to greenhouse gas emissions, such as future population, GDP (gross domestic product), renewable energy costs, and land use policies. We calculated the population.
As a result, it was found that under a scenario where the global average temperature rise is kept below 2°C, the number of poor people will increase by 2030 million by 6,500 and by 2050 million by 1,800 compared to the case where climate change measures are not taken.Almost the same results were obtained in a scenario in which even stronger measures were taken to keep the global average temperature rise below 1.5 degrees.
The research team believes that the economic loss caused by the introduction of high-efficiency equipment for decarbonization and additional investment in renewable energy will push down income, and that the introduction of a carbon tax will affect household budgets due to rising energy and food prices. I think it's for the sake of it.
In other words, the strong side effects of decarbonization appear as an increase in the poor population, so side effects can be reduced by reducing energy demand, exempting low-income earners from carbon taxes, redistributing tax revenues, and exempting developing countries from emission reductions. It is necessary to take possible measures.
Paper information:[Sustainability Science] Potential side effects of climate change mitigation on poverty and countermeasures
