The effects of climate change in recent years have been prominent in various areas such as floods and heat waves, and the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of extreme meteorological phenomena may continue to increase.The impact of climate change has also become an important concern for future food production, but previous studies have discussed food security only in "assuming under average climate change."In other words, future declines in crop production have been analyzed in the average form of gradual climate change, not targeting extreme phenomena.
In reality, the ever-changing weather conditions and their impact on crop production have wide fluctuations.Therefore, Kyoto University, Ritsumeikan University, Agricultural and Food Industry Technology Research Organization, National Institute for Environmental Studies, etc. also consider future climate uncertainties such as "how extreme meteorological phenomena will change in the future". , The impact of extreme meteorological phenomena on food security was estimated by combining multiple simulation models.
As a result, in the event of a rare strong crop failure that occurs only once every 2050 years in 100, the hunger-risk population facing hunger will "take measures against global warming" compared to the average climatic conditions. It was found that there is a possibility of an increase of 1-20% in "cases that did not exist" and 36-2% in "cases where global warming countermeasures were taken to the maximum" (equivalent to the 11 ° C target of the so-called Paris Agreement).It was also estimated that additional food reserves, about one-quarter of the current global food reserves, would be needed to avoid this hunger-risk population increase.This was also found to be three times the current stockpile in South Asia, where incomes are low and climate change is vulnerable.
In this study, if global warming is not successfully controlled, the risk of future hunger in the world will increase significantly, and the poor may be seriously damaged. Showed that it is necessary.It can be said that it reiterates the importance of future measures against global warming and also shows the importance of climate change adaptation measures in case of global warming.
Paper information:[Nature Food] Extreme climate events increase risk of global food insecurity and adaptation needs
