Recommended!Science! In 2045, computers will surpass humanity.Youth, run now! --University Journal Online

Science students

According to Moore's Law, which predicts the performance of computers, for example, integrated circuits can be doubled in the same area in one year.Even if you can't feel the difference in performance in a few years, it will be a big difference in 1 or 2 years that will change society.In a 10 paper entitled "Future Employment," Associate Professor Michael A. Osborne of Oxford University enumerates occupations that will be mechanized 20 years from now with the development of artificial intelligence, and the way of employment will change. I argued.Furthermore, if we follow Moore's Law, it is thought that in 2013, 10 years later, computers will exceed the intelligence of all human beings, and changes that cannot be imagined from now on will occur.Readers are a generation that will live beyond 30.We talked to Professor Takuya Matsuda, who is a leading figure in the 2045 problem in Japan, about what kind of era will come.

How to meet the limits of growth

　According to the Club of Rome's "Limits of Growth" forecast, the global economy will peak in 2020 and decline rapidly, and by 2100, GDP will fall to one-tenth of what it is today.In Japan, it is as rich as the Meiji era.Considering that it was richer than in the early Meiji era even after the end of the war, it would be unimaginably poor.This is the first difficulty faced by humankind since the Industrial Revolution.Growth is limited because resources run out, and there is a shortage of non-renewable resources such as iron as well as oil.

　The only way to push that limit is to increase productivity with as little resources as possible.I believe that this is a challenge beyond human intelligence and can only be solved by machine superintelligence, which far exceeds human intelligence.

　The moment when superintelligence is born in the history of science is called "singularity".Since then, super-intelligence is responsible for technological innovation, and humans cannot predict whereabouts, so it is called this.Kurzweil, an American futurist, predicts that in 2045, machines will be as smart as all human beings, or one to ten billion times smarter than humans.I have no idea what this is so far.

Optimism and pessimism over superintelligence

　Kurzweil argues for extreme optimism that super-intelligence will solve environmental pollution and food problems, and even prevent human death. It is a "techno utopian world view".

　Extreme pessimism, on the other hand, is a future in which humans are destroyed or dominated by computers, as in the movies "Terminator" and "The Matrix."Astrophysicist Stephen Hawking and Microsoft founder Bill Gates are in this position.I call this position "Hollywood-like world view".

　I believe neither of these extreme predictions will come true.Of course, super-intelligence will be possible, but human beings also exist.What is worrisome is a super-disparity society like the movie "Elysium" where a country monopolizes super-intelligence and seizes world hegemony, or only the wealthy become immortal and the general public is forced to live a miserable life. ..