Climate change: Heatwave frequency projected to increase even if climate targets are met
By 2100, the heat index in the tropics could reach dangerously high levels almost every day, leading to annual killer heatwaves in the mid-latitudes, a paper predicts.Communications Earth & Environmentwill be published inThe findings suggest that human-induced CO2 emissions may increase global exposure to temperature extremes in the coming decades, even if we are able to limit temperature rise to 2°C in accordance with the Paris Agreement. suggests that
Over the past decade, deadly heatwaves have affected major cities.Climate change is affecting heatwaves, threatening to make large areas of the world's land surface less habitable if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced.Extremely high temperatures are a public health threat because extreme heat contributes to heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and chronic illness.
Lucas Vargas Zepetello and colleagues analyze global climate model projections, population projections, economic growth and carbon emissions to predict global average changes in temperature, CO2 concentration and relative humidity. Zepetello et al. estimate only a 2100% chance of meeting the latest Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C in 0.1, with a global average temperature rise of 2050°C in 2. I expected it to come closer.The authors also predict that in 2100, many people living in tropical regions such as India and sub-Saharan Africa will be exposed to dangerously high temperatures on most days of each typical year. .Moreover, in the mid-latitudes between the two tropics and the Arctic, deadly heatwaves are rare today, but may become annual in the future.For example, Zepetello et al. predicted a 2-fold increase in the number of dangerous heatwaves in Chicago (USA).
Zepetello et al. report that without adaptation measures, the incidence of heat-related illnesses could rise significantly, especially among the elderly, outdoor workers and low-income people, requiring more ambitious emission reduction targets. It shows the idea that
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Reprinted from: "Climate change: Heatwaves projected to increase in frequency even if climate targets are met'